***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 31.9 33.0 31.5 3.0 83.7 76.7 28.7 30.0 31.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 31.3 32.0 31.2 2.7 80.6 74.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 31.4 32.4 31.7 3.1 83.6 76.5 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 20 80 100 24.8 26.5 29.7 3.3 86.6 78.7 21.3 22.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 32.4 33.7 30.2 3.2 84.8 77.2 29.0 30.4 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 30.5 31.1 26.8 2.1 76.1 69.0 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 30.9 31.6 31.0 2.6 80.0 73.4 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 19.8 20.9 28.0 2.9 83.4 75.3 16.6 18.0 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 31.5 33.0 31.0 3.5 87.6 79.7 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.5 29.0 3.2 84.9 77.0 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 19 81 100 31.9 33.2 30.2 3.2 84.5 76.7 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 31.0 32.3 29.3 3.0 83.8 75.7 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 32.0 33.1 29.2 2.7 80.6 73.5 28.8 30.2 31.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 31.2 32.4 29.9 3.1 84.7 76.8 27.9 29.3 30.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 32.1 33.5 31.2 3.1 85.9 77.9 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 32.9 34.3 29.8 3.1 84.1 76.4 29.4 30.9 32.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 30.5 31.2 30.7 2.6 79.8 73.1 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 30.2 31.4 28.2 3.2 84.6 76.4 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 31.0 32.0 31.5 2.9 82.6 75.7 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 26.3 27.4 25.8 2.7 82.1 73.8 23.0 24.4 25.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 31.5 32.7 31.4 3.1 84.2 76.9 28.3 29.7 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.9 30.5 2.5 79.4 72.8 28.3 29.5 30.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 31.0 32.4 31.9 3.5 87.1 79.2 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 30.9 32.1 30.1 3.2 85.2 77.2 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 31.6 32.8 30.2 3.0 83.7 76.3 28.5 29.8 31.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 31.7 32.8 28.7 2.7 81.2 73.5 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.2 30.7 3.0 83.4 76.2 28.2 29.4 30.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 32.3 33.6 30.2 3.1 85.2 77.4 29.0 30.4 31.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 25.8 26.9 27.1 2.9 82.9 74.7 22.4 23.8 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 31.2 32.1 31.3 2.8 81.2 74.6 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------