***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 30.4 32.3 32.1 4.1 89.7 82.6 27.4 28.7 29.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 30.0 31.5 31.6 3.8 87.4 80.1 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 30.2 32.2 32.4 4.3 90.1 82.8 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 23.9 26.2 30.9 4.7 92.3 86.2 20.7 22.0 23.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 31.3 33.6 31.0 4.5 91.0 84.4 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 29.9 31.6 27.8 3.5 87.7 81.0 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 29.5 31.2 31.6 3.8 87.4 80.1 26.5 27.8 29.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 19.2 21.1 29.1 4.3 89.9 83.2 15.9 17.2 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 20 80 100 30.5 32.9 31.3 4.6 91.6 84.8 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 30.5 32.6 29.9 4.5 90.6 83.8 27.2 28.6 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 20 80 100 30.9 33.1 30.7 4.5 91.1 84.6 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 30.1 32.2 30.4 4.4 90.2 83.8 26.9 28.2 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 31.3 33.1 29.5 4.0 88.3 82.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.0 31.8 30.0 4.1 89.0 81.2 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 31.3 33.5 31.4 4.4 92.1 86.0 27.9 29.2 30.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 32.0 34.3 30.5 4.4 90.9 84.7 28.6 30.0 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 29.2 30.6 31.1 3.5 86.1 78.6 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 29.4 31.4 29.2 4.4 89.9 82.6 26.1 27.5 28.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 29.7 31.4 31.9 4.0 88.4 81.0 26.5 27.8 29.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 25.7 27.5 26.5 3.9 88.3 81.3 22.2 23.6 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 30.6 32.8 31.8 4.3 90.4 83.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 29.7 31.1 30.9 3.5 85.9 78.2 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 29.8 31.7 32.1 4.3 90.2 82.6 26.7 28.0 29.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 29.9 32.0 30.5 4.3 90.2 82.8 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 30.7 32.9 30.8 4.3 90.4 83.5 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 17 83 100 30.8 32.6 29.8 4.0 89.4 83.2 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 30.0 32.0 31.2 4.1 89.8 82.7 26.9 28.2 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 31.5 33.7 31.0 4.5 91.8 85.8 28.1 29.4 30.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 25.1 26.9 27.9 4.0 88.3 81.1 21.7 23.1 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 29.9 31.6 31.8 3.9 88.2 81.0 26.7 28.0 29.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------