***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.9 29.0 2.0 73.7 66.0 24.2 25.7 27.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 27.7 28.7 1.8 71.7 63.7 24.2 25.8 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 27.3 27.9 29.4 2.1 74.8 66.3 24.4 25.8 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 20.5 21.4 27.8 2.5 78.7 71.2 17.6 19.0 20.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 28.0 28.8 28.0 2.4 76.8 69.0 25.1 26.5 27.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.0 27.3 25.2 1.9 73.2 66.9 24.3 25.6 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 26.0 27.4 28.7 1.8 71.5 63.5 24.0 25.5 26.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.4 17.0 26.1 2.2 75.2 67.3 13.6 14.9 16.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 27.4 28.3 28.3 2.5 77.8 69.2 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 27.4 28.1 26.9 2.4 76.4 68.0 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 27.8 28.7 27.8 2.5 77.4 69.4 24.8 26.2 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 27.3 28.0 27.4 2.3 76.0 68.5 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 28.3 28.7 26.7 2.1 73.5 67.2 25.3 26.7 28.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 27.3 27.9 27.2 2.1 74.3 65.0 24.2 25.7 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 28.2 29.0 28.5 2.5 79.1 71.9 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.7 27.6 2.4 77.3 69.9 25.9 27.3 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.7 26.8 28.3 1.6 69.7 61.7 23.6 25.1 26.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 26.3 27.0 26.1 2.3 75.3 66.3 23.5 24.9 26.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 26.2 27.7 29.0 2.0 73.3 64.8 24.1 25.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.6 22.9 23.4 1.9 71.8 64.0 19.7 21.1 22.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 27.5 28.2 28.8 2.2 75.1 66.9 24.5 26.0 27.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.1 27.3 28.1 1.6 69.5 61.5 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 27.1 27.9 29.2 2.3 76.0 66.6 24.2 25.6 26.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 26.9 27.7 27.6 2.3 75.9 66.6 23.9 25.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 27.5 28.1 27.6 2.1 74.7 67.2 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 28.0 28.4 26.9 2.1 74.5 68.3 25.1 26.4 27.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 27.2 27.7 28.1 2.0 73.8 66.1 24.3 25.7 27.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 28.2 28.9 28.0 2.5 78.6 71.4 25.5 26.7 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 20.9 22.2 24.9 2.0 72.7 64.2 18.9 20.3 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 26.2 27.6 28.9 1.9 72.6 64.7 24.2 25.6 27.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------