***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-13.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.5 6.7 51.8 45.7 37.4 3.0 6.6 12.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.5 7.3 65.1 52.1 40.7 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.1 5.0 5.4 45.3 43.3 32.7 3.0 6.6 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.4 10.7 8.8 70.7 54.5 41.8 4.4 9.2 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.4 5.9 5.8 53.7 46.9 35.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.8 9.9 82.1 58.2 44.3 4.0 8.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.2 10.0 83.0 59.3 43.5 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.6 8.9 6.2 48.3 42.8 33.4 6.1 11.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 4.6 7.1 5.4 45.9 43.4 33.3 4.7 9.0 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 5.2 8.2 6.1 44.8 41.4 31.7 6.1 10.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 4.4 7.4 4.8 44.9 43.8 31.0 5.2 8.9 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.6 5.7 4.9 46.6 43.5 33.2 3.8 7.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.0 5.7 5.1 51.2 46.3 34.2 2.9 6.9 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 5.1 7.8 6.0 47.0 42.4 31.9 5.4 10.0 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 10.3 11.2 8.8 82.5 61.4 43.2 3.5 7.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.6 5.9 56.5 49.0 36.6 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.0 9.6 9.2 79.9 59.0 45.1 3.5 7.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.2 7.3 6.5 47.9 40.7 31.6 5.7 9.7 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.0 6.0 55.1 47.1 36.9 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.0 6.0 7.2 55.0 42.8 35.1 3.8 7.8 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.4 5.9 50.1 44.9 34.3 4.3 8.9 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.7 8.4 6.6 59.3 50.3 39.2 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 2.6 4.6 5.4 49.7 43.4 33.1 2.8 6.0 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.9 8.9 5.6 47.3 42.3 30.4 6.3 11.6 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 8.2 7.7 61.2 49.9 40.8 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 6.4 5.2 62.3 51.5 38.2 2.8 6.1 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 5.8 7.9 57.5 48.3 40.3 3.1 6.1 10.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.4 9.9 8.5 76.1 57.6 42.2 3.1 7.2 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.5 9.0 6.5 49.1 40.8 32.6 6.7 12.2 19.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 3.4 5.8 6.7 56.2 48.5 37.9 3.1 6.1 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------