***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.08.2017.-20.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 79 21 0 100 1.5 2.2 3.2 31.1 32.4 22.3 2.2 5.3 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 1.4 1.6 3.0 26.7 30.6 22.1 1.9 4.5 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 1.3 1.7 3.2 30.6 31.6 22.0 1.9 4.8 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 82 18 0 100 1.1 2.0 3.3 35.0 34.7 20.8 1.8 4.3 8.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.9 30.1 31.6 20.2 1.4 3.0 5.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 1.1 2.0 4.0 38.7 34.3 20.9 1.8 4.1 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 1.6 1.8 3.0 26.5 30.5 23.1 2.0 4.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 2.2 3.9 3.7 35.8 34.3 21.7 3.6 7.2 12.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 0.9 1.3 2.9 30.1 31.8 19.9 1.5 3.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 83 17 0 100 1.5 2.4 3.6 33.5 33.4 20.9 2.4 5.2 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.6 3.7 35.8 33.9 22.7 1.5 3.0 5.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 1.1 2.0 3.4 36.8 35.1 21.6 1.8 3.6 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 0.9 1.9 3.3 39.0 39.3 24.4 1.4 3.1 5.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 2.1 3.1 4.1 32.7 32.2 20.6 3.2 6.7 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 1.0 1.8 3.6 43.2 40.0 24.5 1.2 3.3 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 0.8 1.5 3.3 36.7 36.7 23.2 1.3 3.0 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 1.3 1.7 3.4 30.4 32.8 22.8 1.7 3.4 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 1.2 1.6 3.7 30.5 30.0 19.5 1.9 3.8 6.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 1.4 1.7 3.0 27.1 29.9 21.4 2.0 4.6 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 2.0 3.1 4.5 38.1 35.3 22.6 2.8 5.9 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 1.1 1.9 3.0 30.2 31.9 20.1 1.9 4.8 9.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 1.3 2.0 4.1 39.3 36.4 26.0 1.7 3.5 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 1.7 2.2 3.1 27.3 29.0 19.8 2.7 5.2 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 1.6 1.9 3.4 29.1 28.9 19.9 2.4 5.2 9.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 0.8 1.4 3.8 33.5 32.6 21.9 1.4 3.3 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 78 22 0 100 0.8 1.5 3.6 42.3 36.8 25.7 1.2 2.5 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.9 2.7 3.5 30.6 31.1 22.2 3.1 7.0 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 81 19 0 100 0.8 1.5 3.0 35.8 36.2 20.4 1.2 2.7 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 1.8 2.3 4.4 32.8 30.8 21.5 2.6 5.6 10.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 1.6 1.6 3.1 27.0 30.5 22.6 1.9 4.7 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------