***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 1.7 3.4 4.2 40.6 41.3 25.6 2.1 4.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.6 5.6 4.7 48.6 44.1 25.6 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 2.2 3.9 4.1 39.4 39.6 26.1 2.7 6.5 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 2.8 4.6 3.4 35.0 37.9 23.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.9 2.7 2.9 30.1 35.6 22.9 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 1.7 2.5 2.8 24.4 29.0 16.4 3.0 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 1.9 4.6 4.3 45.7 42.3 26.1 2.7 6.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 3.3 5.3 3.7 33.5 35.8 22.0 4.7 10.1 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 2.3 2.9 3.1 29.6 34.6 22.2 2.4 6.7 13.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 2.5 3.8 4.0 33.0 35.4 22.8 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 1.9 3.1 2.6 29.5 35.1 21.0 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 1.7 2.6 2.5 28.6 33.0 18.8 2.6 4.8 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 1.6 2.4 2.5 26.1 31.8 17.4 2.6 5.4 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 3.4 5.8 5.5 39.1 38.0 25.6 4.5 9.9 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 1.2 2.6 3.1 39.1 40.9 22.2 1.7 4.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 1.7 2.4 2.2 24.5 30.8 17.0 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 3.6 7.2 4.2 45.0 42.1 26.2 5.0 9.3 15.5 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 3.1 4.8 5.1 37.2 37.2 24.3 3.9 8.9 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 2.7 5.5 4.6 45.7 42.2 25.5 3.5 7.5 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 3.9 6.2 5.6 41.6 39.8 26.7 4.6 9.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 2.2 3.4 3.4 33.1 36.8 22.1 2.9 6.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 4.4 8.6 4.9 45.9 43.0 27.1 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 2.7 4.3 4.1 37.9 37.3 25.0 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 2.9 4.4 4.6 36.7 36.7 24.3 3.6 7.9 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 2.5 4.6 4.1 38.1 40.3 24.5 3.2 6.8 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 2.1 3.2 2.3 28.3 34.2 18.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.9 4.5 41.7 42.1 25.7 3.9 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 1.9 3.2 3.0 34.3 36.8 21.3 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 3.5 5.7 5.7 39.9 38.2 26.2 4.3 9.4 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 1.7 3.7 4.6 45.9 42.9 26.2 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------