***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.6 8.5 81.9 59.0 39.0 4.3 8.5 14.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 4.3 10.8 7.5 74.2 56.0 39.0 4.7 8.8 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.5 12.2 8.2 79.7 57.8 40.0 4.6 9.2 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.2 11.6 8.0 79.6 58.2 39.2 4.0 8.6 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.3 11.3 7.2 78.3 57.4 39.8 4.3 8.8 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 4.0 9.1 8.7 70.2 54.8 40.1 3.9 7.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.1 7.9 7.4 75.4 56.6 39.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.6 16.9 8.8 75.0 55.0 41.3 7.7 14.4 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 4.8 12.8 7.8 80.2 58.2 40.1 5.2 9.8 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.8 13.7 9.3 75.9 55.8 40.4 5.8 11.3 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.7 10.8 7.0 75.4 56.0 38.9 4.7 9.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.6 7.1 74.4 55.6 39.7 3.9 7.9 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.6 9.6 7.3 70.2 55.3 38.8 4.0 7.9 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.4 15.4 10.7 83.1 58.8 40.9 6.7 11.9 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.9 5.9 7.1 82.2 60.5 38.6 1.8 3.9 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 3.4 9.4 7.0 71.2 55.4 37.5 3.6 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 4.1 9.1 7.1 72.9 56.0 39.2 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 11.5 11.1 81.0 57.7 42.8 5.1 9.1 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.3 10.1 7.8 75.3 56.0 38.6 4.8 8.5 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.0 16.1 12.8 90.8 60.8 46.5 6.5 11.6 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.6 11.2 8.1 88.0 61.0 41.0 3.7 7.6 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 6.6 12.4 7.9 71.8 54.9 39.2 7.3 11.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 4.5 11.6 8.3 78.4 57.3 38.8 4.9 9.1 15.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.7 15.5 9.7 80.3 58.0 40.9 6.5 12.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.0 9.4 91.3 62.2 41.0 3.4 7.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.1 6.3 70.6 56.0 41.1 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.1 12.1 9.7 89.9 61.6 40.9 4.0 8.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.3 7.5 76.0 57.4 37.8 3.1 5.7 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 20.3 20.1 12.2 86.0 59.2 44.1 7.4 14.6 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 3.9 9.9 8.0 77.4 57.0 40.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------