***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 21.1 21.1 22.6 51.4 30.9 29.4 22.5 35.6 52.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 24.1 26.3 22.5 53.2 31.5 28.6 27.3 39.7 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 27.0 27.0 21.0 48.4 28.9 27.7 30.0 43.7 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 31.9 36.1 23.4 56.4 35.2 32.1 34.5 46.8 61.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 15.7 16.6 18.8 48.0 29.2 27.6 18.9 30.4 45.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 21.8 23.1 25.3 54.8 32.2 30.6 23.6 35.8 50.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 20.2 24.0 24.7 58.1 34.5 30.4 23.2 34.1 47.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 40.1 39.1 22.4 48.6 25.8 25.5 45.8 61.8 79.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 24.0 23.1 19.2 46.2 26.6 25.8 27.7 41.5 57.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 34.8 34.3 23.0 47.1 24.9 24.7 39.5 50.3 62.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 20.3 21.6 18.2 46.2 26.4 25.1 25.3 35.7 47.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 21.2 21.6 17.8 46.9 27.5 26.3 24.2 32.8 42.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 16.7 18.2 18.2 47.5 31.1 28.8 19.3 31.1 46.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 35.1 35.2 26.2 50.3 26.7 25.9 40.5 54.8 71.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 14.2 21.8 22.7 63.7 43.3 36.6 15.4 26.4 40.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 18.2 21.1 18.4 48.3 30.4 28.0 22.6 33.1 45.8 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 24.7 29.3 23.9 57.2 35.1 31.3 28.0 38.1 49.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 28.6 27.2 26.5 49.6 25.5 25.7 32.4 44.5 58.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 21.2 23.1 21.5 50.4 29.4 27.4 25.6 38.0 52.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 33.3 33.2 30.1 57.1 28.7 29.0 36.3 49.3 63.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 26.4 27.2 20.4 49.7 30.1 28.5 29.2 43.0 59.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 30.6 33.6 23.5 54.3 32.2 30.1 34.1 45.3 58.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 75 25 0 100 20.9 22.5 20.8 47.9 27.6 26.1 26.1 38.7 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 34.7 34.6 23.3 48.3 26.4 25.6 39.9 53.7 69.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 25.7 28.9 24.9 55.6 34.0 31.4 28.6 40.3 54.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 17.6 18.4 17.5 51.4 32.2 30.1 18.9 28.8 41.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 28.7 30.9 25.5 54.8 32.7 30.5 31.2 43.9 58.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 17.5 22.3 22.0 57.7 37.6 33.1 19.6 30.1 42.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 41.7 40.5 28.7 52.2 25.7 26.2 46.8 62.4 80.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 23.2 24.1 22.4 51.2 30.0 27.9 25.6 35.2 46.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------