***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 14.7 14.8 17.2 -1.4 26.3 30.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 80 20 0 100 14.0 13.8 16.4 -1.8 18.9 23.2 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 16.7 16.6 17.1 -1.6 22.8 26.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.7 15.3 -0.8 34.6 38.0 12.6 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 13.3 13.3 15.7 -1.3 26.6 30.8 13.6 14.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.7 12.9 13.5 -0.7 35.4 39.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 14.6 14.5 16.7 -1.7 20.9 24.8 15.1 15.9 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.1 8.0 13.0 -1.3 25.5 30.9 8.3 9.1 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.7 15.9 -1.2 27.4 31.7 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 14.6 14.5 13.9 -1.4 24.3 29.6 14.9 15.5 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 14.2 14.2 15.5 -1.3 25.6 30.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.3 -1.2 27.5 32.6 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 13.5 13.4 14.4 -1.2 26.0 32.4 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 85 15 0 100 14.9 14.6 14.7 -1.9 15.7 20.4 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 16.8 16.2 17.9 -0.5 40.5 43.1 15.9 16.6 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 15.0 14.9 15.0 -1.2 27.0 32.4 15.2 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 15.1 14.9 16.1 -1.7 18.0 22.3 15.6 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.2 13.0 -1.7 19.9 25.1 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 14.4 14.3 16.6 -1.7 19.9 24.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 8.6 8.4 11.1 -1.5 21.6 27.2 9.0 9.6 10.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 14.3 14.3 16.9 -1.5 24.1 28.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 13.9 13.6 16.2 -2.0 15.2 19.3 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 13.8 13.8 16.7 -1.5 22.9 26.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 75 25 0 100 14.8 14.6 15.1 -1.6 20.3 24.8 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 14.5 14.5 16.6 -1.2 29.0 32.5 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.8 13.7 13.4 -1.3 26.0 31.8 14.0 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 -1.2 29.4 32.8 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 14.7 13.9 16.2 -0.6 38.3 41.0 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.1 -1.8 17.9 23.6 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 14.4 14.4 16.9 -1.7 20.5 24.7 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------