***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.08.2016.-21.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 85 15 0 100 14.2 13.9 16.3 -1.9 16.3 21.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 13.8 13.3 16.1 -1.8 17.1 22.0 14.5 15.4 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 16.6 16.2 16.6 -1.8 17.6 22.7 17.2 18.0 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 12.1 12.0 14.3 -1.4 21.3 26.2 12.8 13.9 14.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 12.5 12.2 14.6 -1.6 17.7 23.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 75 25 0 100 11.9 11.7 12.4 -1.3 19.2 25.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 14.3 14.0 16.3 -1.9 17.5 22.0 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 7.6 7.2 12.2 -1.5 17.3 23.6 8.2 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 13.7 13.4 14.7 -1.6 16.7 22.0 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 13.8 13.5 13.0 -1.6 16.3 22.2 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 13.2 12.9 14.3 -1.6 17.6 22.8 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 11.5 11.2 13.2 -1.6 17.4 23.5 12.0 12.7 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 12.5 12.0 12.6 -1.8 12.2 19.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 84 16 0 100 14.3 14.0 14.2 -1.8 15.6 21.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 14.7 14.6 16.0 -1.4 20.3 25.0 15.3 16.2 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 14.3 14.0 13.6 -1.6 16.2 22.2 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 14.9 14.7 15.9 -1.6 19.5 24.3 15.4 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 11.9 11.6 12.3 -1.7 15.1 21.1 12.6 13.3 14.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 14.3 14.1 16.2 -1.7 19.1 24.1 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 8.2 7.9 10.3 -1.7 15.0 22.1 8.7 9.3 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 13.6 13.2 15.9 -1.8 15.2 20.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 13.6 13.4 16.0 -1.6 19.6 24.4 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 13.9 13.8 16.4 -1.4 23.0 28.3 14.3 15.0 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 79 21 0 100 14.0 13.7 14.4 -1.7 16.7 22.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 13.8 13.4 15.3 -1.8 16.0 22.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 13.1 12.6 12.0 -1.9 11.1 18.6 13.7 14.3 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 13.8 13.5 15.7 -1.9 16.3 21.8 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.5 14.9 -1.4 21.9 26.5 13.0 13.8 14.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 11.7 11.2 11.6 -1.7 14.9 21.6 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 14.4 14.1 16.3 -1.9 17.0 21.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------