***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 15.2 14.8 17.8 0.0 50.1 49.6 13.9 14.8 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 14.8 14.7 17.6 0.2 53.9 52.2 13.5 14.4 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.3 17.2 18.3 0.3 55.9 53.5 15.9 16.9 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 11.3 13.1 15.9 0.5 59.7 57.1 11.5 12.5 13.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.5 15.9 0.4 58.2 56.3 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 13.0 12.8 14.2 0.7 64.5 60.3 11.5 12.2 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.8 17.7 0.0 50.1 49.3 13.8 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.5 14.0 0.5 61.3 57.9 6.8 7.8 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.9 15.9 0.4 58.3 56.4 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 14.6 14.7 14.6 0.4 60.0 57.4 13.4 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.1 14.2 15.5 0.5 60.4 57.9 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.5 14.7 0.4 59.1 56.7 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.2 13.2 13.5 0.1 52.4 52.5 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.1 15.8 0.2 54.9 53.7 14.0 14.9 15.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.9 17.2 0.5 60.6 57.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.1 15.1 14.8 0.4 58.5 56.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.5 15.4 17.4 0.2 55.1 52.8 14.2 15.1 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.6 13.0 13.9 0.4 59.2 56.8 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.1 17.8 0.3 57.4 54.6 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.9 11.6 0.4 58.6 56.2 7.9 8.6 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.3 17.2 0.2 53.8 52.7 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.2 17.3 0.2 55.0 53.1 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 14.3 14.5 17.9 0.5 61.4 57.4 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.0 15.8 0.4 59.5 56.9 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 13.1 14.2 16.4 0.1 51.2 50.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 12.6 13.7 13.5 0.3 56.0 55.1 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 13.2 14.7 17.0 0.0 50.0 49.6 13.5 14.7 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.6 16.4 0.6 62.0 58.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.6 13.3 0.3 57.3 55.3 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 15.4 15.1 17.8 0.1 52.4 51.0 13.9 14.9 15.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------