***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 12.0 12.8 16.6 -0.2 45.6 46.7 12.2 13.1 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 11.7 12.5 16.2 -0.3 43.7 45.8 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 13.9 15.0 17.0 -0.1 47.6 48.6 14.1 15.1 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 9.1 10.5 14.6 0.1 52.0 51.7 9.3 10.4 11.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 10.7 11.8 14.6 0.0 49.3 50.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.0 11.3 13.0 0.3 55.2 54.4 10.2 11.0 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 12.1 12.7 16.3 -0.5 41.5 44.2 12.3 13.2 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.1 6.4 12.7 0.1 51.5 52.2 5.4 6.4 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.9 14.6 -0.1 48.9 49.7 12.1 13.0 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.9 13.3 0.0 49.7 50.9 12.0 12.9 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.6 14.2 0.0 50.1 50.9 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.0 13.4 0.0 50.1 50.9 10.1 11.0 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 11.0 12.0 12.4 -0.1 47.0 48.4 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 12.4 13.4 14.5 -0.1 48.4 49.5 12.7 13.5 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.1 14.3 15.9 0.2 54.3 52.9 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 12.3 13.5 13.5 0.0 50.1 50.6 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 12.5 13.1 15.9 -0.3 43.4 45.9 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 10.4 11.4 12.5 -0.1 47.9 49.9 10.6 11.5 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.0 16.3 -0.2 46.7 47.9 12.3 13.1 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.7 7.7 10.4 -0.1 48.0 50.1 6.9 7.8 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 11.6 12.6 16.1 -0.1 47.8 48.5 11.8 12.7 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 11.6 12.3 15.9 -0.3 44.2 46.6 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 11.6 12.7 16.5 0.0 50.8 50.8 11.7 12.6 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.0 14.4 0.0 49.1 50.3 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.9 15.3 -0.2 47.1 47.9 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 11.1 12.1 12.4 0.0 49.7 50.2 11.2 12.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 11.7 12.9 15.9 -0.2 45.8 46.7 12.0 13.1 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.7 12.1 15.1 0.3 55.2 53.8 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.1 10.1 11.9 -0.2 46.5 49.0 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 12.2 12.9 16.5 -0.3 43.7 45.7 12.3 13.3 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------