***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.1 17.0 -0.9 25.9 30.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.6 -0.9 22.4 28.0 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.4 16.3 17.2 -0.8 27.8 32.4 16.5 17.0 17.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.2 15.1 -0.4 38.0 40.3 12.0 12.6 13.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.2 -0.6 31.7 35.3 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.3 -0.3 41.1 43.3 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 14.1 14.0 16.8 -1.0 22.7 27.9 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.4 7.6 13.0 -0.6 32.6 36.4 7.6 8.1 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.9 14.0 15.3 -0.6 31.3 35.2 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.8 13.9 13.7 -0.6 30.3 34.4 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.5 14.9 -0.6 33.0 36.2 13.5 14.0 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 11.8 11.8 13.9 -0.6 32.6 36.2 11.9 12.3 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 12.8 12.8 13.3 -0.8 27.0 31.5 12.9 13.4 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.3 14.8 -0.9 22.8 27.9 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 14.9 15.3 16.8 -0.3 41.6 43.0 15.0 15.6 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 14.3 14.4 14.2 -0.6 32.3 35.8 14.5 14.9 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.5 16.3 -0.9 22.9 28.8 14.8 15.2 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.9 -0.8 25.5 30.6 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.2 14.2 16.7 -0.8 26.1 31.2 14.4 14.8 15.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 8.3 8.3 10.8 -0.7 25.9 31.1 8.4 8.8 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 13.7 13.7 16.5 -0.8 27.4 32.0 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.6 13.4 16.3 -0.9 22.5 28.1 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 13.7 13.8 16.9 -0.6 32.3 36.6 13.8 14.2 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.1 14.9 -0.7 27.1 32.0 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 14.0 13.9 15.9 -0.8 28.0 32.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 13.1 13.1 12.8 -0.7 28.2 32.3 13.2 13.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.1 16.4 -0.8 27.0 31.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.6 -0.3 42.1 43.5 12.8 13.3 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.6 11.4 12.2 -0.8 23.6 29.0 11.7 12.2 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 14.3 14.2 16.9 -1.0 23.7 28.8 14.5 15.0 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------