***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 77 23 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.5 -2.3 22.3 25.8 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 26.9 26.5 26.4 -2.8 16.9 20.8 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 27.1 27.0 26.6 -2.5 21.2 24.7 27.9 29.0 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 20.6 21.1 25.0 -1.1 35.9 37.7 20.9 22.1 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 27.8 28.0 25.4 -2.0 25.9 28.8 28.5 29.8 30.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 28.8 27.6 23.9 -0.8 39.8 41.6 27.2 28.3 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 26.8 26.6 26.5 -2.5 19.8 23.6 27.6 28.7 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 15.8 15.8 22.8 -2.2 23.0 26.1 16.5 17.6 18.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 27.2 27.4 26.1 -2.0 26.2 29.1 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 26.9 27.1 23.7 -2.3 23.2 26.2 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 27.4 27.7 25.7 -2.0 26.8 29.6 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 26.8 27.0 24.5 -1.9 26.9 29.9 27.5 28.6 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 28.0 28.5 25.5 -1.5 31.3 34.2 28.6 29.7 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 26.7 26.2 24.7 -2.8 16.2 19.8 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 30.3 29.5 28.3 -0.5 43.5 44.3 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.7 29.1 25.7 -1.4 32.2 34.8 29.2 30.4 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 26.2 25.8 26.0 -2.7 17.2 21.2 27.1 28.3 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 26.0 25.8 22.4 -2.6 19.1 22.6 26.8 27.9 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 80 20 0 100 26.5 26.3 26.6 -2.6 19.3 22.9 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 21.9 21.8 20.5 -2.5 19.5 23.2 22.8 24.0 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 77 23 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.6 -2.4 22.6 25.8 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 26.5 26.1 25.9 -2.9 15.8 19.4 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.9 -2.0 25.2 28.2 27.7 28.8 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 81 19 0 100 26.5 26.4 24.9 -2.5 20.1 23.8 27.4 28.5 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 27.6 27.5 25.6 -2.1 24.3 27.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 27.8 28.0 24.1 -1.7 28.7 32.3 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.0 -2.1 23.4 27.1 27.8 29.0 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 30.3 29.3 26.7 -0.7 41.6 42.8 28.7 29.9 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 83 17 0 100 21.2 20.9 21.5 -2.8 16.7 20.6 22.2 23.3 24.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 26.9 26.7 26.5 -2.7 18.2 22.0 27.8 28.9 29.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------