***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.4 28.4 -0.1 49.1 48.5 27.1 28.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 28.5 27.9 28.4 0.0 49.8 49.1 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.4 29.1 0.3 54.1 52.2 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 22.2 22.4 27.6 0.8 59.7 57.2 20.4 21.7 22.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.5 27.6 0.5 55.8 54.1 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.6 25.6 0.8 60.6 58.7 26.3 27.8 29.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 28.1 27.4 28.3 -0.2 47.7 47.4 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.6 17.7 26.0 0.6 57.3 55.6 15.7 17.1 18.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 28.9 28.8 27.7 0.5 56.2 54.2 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 28.8 28.9 26.5 0.6 57.0 55.0 27.0 28.3 29.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 29.2 29.3 27.4 0.6 57.7 55.8 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 28.6 28.6 27.2 0.6 56.9 55.4 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.5 26.4 0.4 54.7 53.8 27.7 29.1 30.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.4 28.3 26.8 0.4 55.4 53.1 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.5 30.0 28.7 1.1 63.2 60.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 30.3 30.4 27.2 0.7 58.2 56.5 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 25.5 27.0 28.0 -0.1 48.3 48.0 25.8 27.2 28.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.8 27.8 25.7 0.5 56.3 54.2 25.9 27.3 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.9 28.8 0.3 53.5 51.8 26.2 27.6 28.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 24.0 24.0 23.5 0.6 56.8 55.2 22.0 23.4 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 28.9 28.5 28.3 0.2 52.1 50.9 26.9 28.3 29.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 26.1 27.6 27.9 0.0 49.4 49.0 26.4 27.7 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 28.3 28.4 29.0 0.7 59.0 55.7 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 28.2 28.2 27.1 0.5 56.9 54.4 26.3 27.7 29.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.1 28.4 26.9 0.0 50.1 49.5 27.0 28.4 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 29.3 29.4 27.1 0.7 58.9 57.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 28.5 27.8 27.5 0.0 49.4 48.8 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 29.6 30.1 28.2 1.1 62.7 59.8 27.8 29.1 30.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 23.5 23.3 24.6 0.4 54.6 53.1 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 28.4 27.8 28.6 0.0 50.0 49.2 26.4 27.8 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------