***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 27.2 27.4 27.3 -0.9 33.7 37.0 27.3 28.3 29.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.0 27.3 -1.1 30.5 34.8 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.4 27.4 27.8 -0.7 37.2 40.3 27.2 28.0 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.3 26.1 -0.1 49.0 49.9 20.4 21.3 22.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 29.2 28.4 26.4 -0.5 41.2 43.5 27.9 28.9 29.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.5 24.4 0.0 50.3 51.1 26.6 27.5 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.7 27.3 -1.1 30.4 34.3 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.1 16.3 24.4 -0.5 41.4 44.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 28.5 27.8 26.7 -0.4 42.3 44.5 27.3 28.2 29.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.6 25.1 -0.5 41.6 44.0 27.1 28.0 28.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.1 26.4 -0.4 43.4 45.6 27.5 28.5 29.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.4 25.8 -0.4 43.2 45.5 26.8 27.8 28.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.2 28.5 25.6 -0.4 42.7 44.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.1 25.8 -0.7 36.2 39.6 26.9 27.8 28.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.1 28.0 0.2 54.0 53.8 28.0 28.9 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 29.8 29.3 26.2 -0.2 46.1 47.7 28.5 29.5 30.4 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 26.1 26.3 26.9 -1.1 29.7 34.3 26.5 27.3 28.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 27.3 26.5 24.2 -0.6 39.0 41.9 26.1 27.0 27.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 28.1 26.9 27.7 -0.8 35.6 39.2 26.8 27.7 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.5 22.5 22.1 -0.6 39.1 42.1 22.2 23.1 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 28.6 27.5 27.3 -0.8 36.4 39.4 27.3 28.2 29.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 26.7 26.9 26.9 -1.0 30.9 35.5 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 28.1 27.5 27.9 -0.3 44.6 46.5 27.0 27.8 28.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.9 27.0 26.0 -0.6 39.8 42.6 26.7 27.6 28.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 27.3 27.6 26.0 -0.8 35.2 38.2 27.4 28.4 29.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.2 25.5 -0.4 43.8 45.8 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 27.0 27.1 26.6 -0.9 34.3 37.5 27.1 27.9 28.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.1 27.1 0.2 53.6 53.7 28.0 28.9 29.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.9 21.7 23.2 -0.8 36.2 39.6 21.5 22.5 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 26.8 26.9 27.5 -1.1 31.6 35.5 27.0 27.9 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------