***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.3 9.4 80.3 58.6 45.4 2.5 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 15.3 18.7 13.2 148.3 77.0 58.3 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.2 9.2 88.1 60.8 45.0 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.0 6.6 54.8 47.4 35.5 3.7 7.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.5 9.0 83.1 60.0 42.5 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.7 6.7 48.9 44.1 33.8 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 10.4 12.2 13.7 146.5 76.6 59.9 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 4.2 10.4 10.2 83.4 58.8 42.8 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.6 8.8 75.1 57.3 40.9 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.1 9.5 10.3 77.7 57.1 41.8 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.6 8.7 7.6 77.1 58.0 39.7 3.6 6.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.3 6.9 7.3 75.4 55.9 39.5 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.1 7.7 66.4 53.9 37.3 2.7 5.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.4 13.9 12.1 97.8 64.3 50.2 5.0 9.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.5 5.4 50.0 47.8 34.4 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.2 6.7 65.0 52.8 38.0 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 13.6 18.8 15.2 173.6 81.7 63.6 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.9 11.7 84.5 58.1 45.8 4.6 7.9 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 3.5 14.5 12.5 132.1 73.6 55.1 2.9 6.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 11.7 14.2 106.3 65.4 51.7 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 9.7 8.8 81.1 59.3 43.1 3.0 6.8 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.5 18.2 14.6 151.7 77.8 60.0 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.7 10.0 11.6 115.1 69.6 51.9 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 5.3 13.2 10.3 91.3 61.0 45.4 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.5 10.9 79.2 58.9 45.2 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.7 6.0 68.8 53.8 38.8 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 7.2 7.2 10.9 81.8 59.8 47.6 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.3 6.2 5.7 52.0 47.5 34.8 3.0 6.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.0 12.7 94.9 61.6 49.6 5.0 9.5 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.8 10.2 11.4 120.3 70.6 54.3 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------