***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.8 7.1 94.0 63.8 45.2 2.8 5.9 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.4 6.8 78.9 58.7 41.6 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.7 7.2 84.0 60.7 43.8 3.4 7.7 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.3 6.1 84.0 59.8 39.3 3.6 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.6 10.8 5.8 80.6 59.8 40.3 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 6.3 5.4 64.0 52.0 37.8 2.7 5.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.5 7.8 6.9 82.1 59.9 41.3 2.2 5.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 5.9 19.8 7.1 90.1 62.3 42.8 5.9 12.7 22.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 4.0 13.6 6.8 84.4 61.1 42.7 3.6 8.6 16.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.3 14.5 7.5 81.5 59.3 42.1 5.3 10.6 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.5 9.9 5.0 77.0 57.7 39.0 4.0 7.7 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.7 8.2 5.7 90.5 62.3 42.5 2.9 5.6 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.8 8.7 5.0 77.9 58.1 38.4 3.0 6.4 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.2 16.7 9.3 79.8 58.5 44.8 5.7 12.1 21.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 1.6 5.7 5.1 88.3 61.5 35.9 1.6 3.7 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.4 4.5 69.1 55.1 37.6 3.3 7.0 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 4.0 12.0 7.6 86.4 60.9 39.7 4.0 8.1 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.0 11.8 8.1 69.1 54.8 40.8 4.8 9.8 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.7 9.5 7.0 76.9 57.9 42.0 3.4 7.1 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.5 13.1 7.6 71.3 55.3 38.7 5.6 11.0 18.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.7 12.7 6.7 85.6 61.9 41.9 3.9 8.1 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.4 13.8 7.6 84.9 60.3 41.3 4.3 9.3 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 10.3 7.4 78.0 58.0 43.3 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.7 8.3 75.8 57.6 43.6 5.3 11.0 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.1 15.6 8.1 109.9 68.2 45.8 3.8 8.0 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 3.0 9.8 4.4 86.6 61.8 42.1 3.1 6.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.8 16.2 8.1 104.7 67.0 46.6 4.5 9.0 15.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.6 7.5 5.4 79.1 57.7 36.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 16.0 8.5 71.9 55.3 42.7 6.7 13.3 22.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.5 7.3 6.6 81.7 59.3 42.9 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------