***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 4.1 16.8 10.4 120.9 71.8 45.1 4.4 8.4 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 17.2 9.0 110.8 69.1 45.1 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 5.1 18.6 10.1 118.8 70.9 42.3 5.7 10.1 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 3.8 21.5 9.5 134.8 74.4 39.6 4.4 9.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.8 19.5 9.8 129.5 73.2 39.2 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.0 17.3 10.1 117.3 71.0 41.8 3.9 8.1 14.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.3 13.6 8.7 114.9 69.8 47.0 4.7 8.0 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.4 22.8 8.9 94.1 64.0 43.7 8.4 15.2 24.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 4.2 16.9 10.6 120.7 71.2 39.5 4.7 8.7 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.9 17.6 10.6 104.1 66.7 42.4 6.1 10.9 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 4.8 18.0 8.7 116.4 70.2 41.8 5.0 9.5 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 4.7 17.0 7.3 103.0 66.7 42.6 4.7 9.6 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.6 18.1 8.7 122.6 71.8 40.2 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.6 17.4 11.1 100.2 65.4 42.0 6.3 11.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 1.9 13.3 8.7 147.7 76.9 40.7 2.1 4.7 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.6 17.1 8.9 128.9 73.2 41.4 3.8 7.8 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.6 13.2 8.1 102.5 66.4 47.4 5.5 8.9 13.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 14.8 10.8 95.7 64.0 41.3 5.1 9.6 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 6.2 16.5 9.3 108.6 68.7 43.6 6.3 10.3 15.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.3 17.4 10.6 93.6 63.1 40.9 6.5 11.7 18.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 3.3 16.0 10.3 128.6 73.1 40.3 3.9 7.5 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.7 16.8 9.3 101.4 66.0 44.5 9.0 12.6 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 6.0 16.6 9.3 102.5 67.1 41.8 6.2 10.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 5.3 17.8 10.4 109.9 68.0 41.9 5.5 10.2 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.8 17.5 11.0 127.4 72.9 43.4 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 3.1 12.3 6.4 98.4 65.7 38.0 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.8 15.4 11.0 118.2 71.2 45.1 4.0 7.8 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 2.9 14.6 9.1 145.0 76.5 40.1 3.5 6.4 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.3 21.9 10.9 90.0 62.2 41.5 7.1 14.2 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.0 16.3 9.9 116.9 70.6 44.1 4.9 8.8 14.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------