***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 43.7 43.9 34.8 91.9 57.9 47.0 26.4 37.9 51.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 48.4 50.8 35.8 101.2 61.2 49.4 29.9 41.7 55.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 32.2 50.6 33.8 89.2 55.0 43.6 32.7 46.0 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 32.6 49.7 30.5 82.1 52.9 40.7 34.6 47.3 61.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 21.8 39.5 32.6 90.0 57.2 43.4 22.0 33.6 47.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 24.9 36.8 31.0 76.1 48.6 38.5 25.9 37.9 52.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 41.5 45.4 35.7 104.6 62.7 51.8 24.8 35.5 48.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 45.9 66.9 34.6 86.6 54.2 44.1 46.1 62.6 81.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 30.7 48.9 34.3 88.8 56.3 43.6 30.6 43.6 58.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 39.0 54.1 37.6 86.7 53.9 42.9 40.3 51.4 63.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 27.7 42.3 30.0 85.3 55.2 42.4 28.5 38.9 50.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.2 39.0 28.0 85.9 55.3 44.2 27.5 36.0 45.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 23.1 39.8 28.9 85.1 56.0 42.5 23.2 35.0 49.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 43.2 59.6 40.7 84.3 51.3 42.8 45.3 58.6 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 15.8 30.3 26.6 81.9 54.3 41.1 15.7 27.0 41.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 22.8 37.5 28.3 84.4 54.9 41.5 23.0 33.9 47.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 30.1 48.6 37.2 106.1 62.9 53.0 30.7 40.1 50.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 33.3 45.2 39.3 80.1 48.2 40.8 34.4 46.6 60.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 30.5 48.3 35.9 95.4 58.0 46.6 30.7 42.1 55.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 38.1 53.2 40.2 85.4 51.3 43.4 39.5 52.0 66.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 29.4 49.5 33.5 90.9 57.4 44.1 29.8 43.1 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 34.4 53.4 38.3 98.3 58.8 49.0 35.3 46.7 59.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 29.4 45.2 35.7 89.2 54.2 44.0 30.4 41.9 55.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 41.3 56.7 37.3 84.8 51.2 41.8 42.4 55.8 70.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 28.1 47.6 39.2 96.0 59.7 47.8 27.9 40.0 53.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 19.1 30.8 23.3 80.9 52.2 42.2 19.2 29.5 41.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 51.2 52.3 38.8 94.4 58.9 48.5 31.9 44.6 59.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 21.1 34.8 27.6 81.1 52.9 40.1 22.0 32.5 45.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 46.7 62.0 40.8 80.6 47.2 40.8 48.5 64.9 83.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.5 43.4 35.0 98.3 59.6 47.8 28.2 37.6 47.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------