***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 17.0 19.5 21.8 3.7 98.9 98.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 16.6 18.9 21.2 3.2 98.6 97.6 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 19.3 21.1 21.1 2.9 97.2 96.4 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 15.5 17.1 18.6 2.7 94.1 93.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 15.5 16.7 18.6 2.4 92.8 91.4 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 14.3 14.7 15.7 1.8 86.1 84.2 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 16.9 19.6 22.1 4.1 99.6 99.0 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 10.5 11.7 16.2 2.2 92.7 91.1 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.7 18.7 19.9 3.2 97.9 97.2 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 16.5 17.9 17.4 2.6 95.8 94.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 2 98 100 16.0 16.7 17.7 1.9 88.9 87.4 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.7 16.8 1.9 88.8 87.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 15.0 15.1 15.6 0.8 69.4 68.0 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 17.0 18.2 18.7 2.3 94.3 92.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 17.6 18.6 20.2 2.4 92.3 91.4 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 16.8 17.0 16.8 1.3 79.4 77.7 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 17.3 19.1 20.5 3.1 98.3 97.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 14.9 16.0 16.0 2.0 91.5 89.9 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 16.8 18.7 21.2 3.3 98.7 97.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 10.7 11.5 13.8 1.7 89.1 87.9 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.4 18.1 21.1 3.2 97.5 96.7 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 16.1 17.8 20.9 3.2 98.2 97.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 16.1 18.1 21.4 3.5 98.7 98.2 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 16.9 18.2 18.4 2.2 93.9 92.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 16.7 18.5 20.3 3.0 96.6 95.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 15.3 15.5 15.3 1.1 75.5 73.9 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 17.1 19.7 20.9 3.4 98.0 97.2 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 15.4 16.2 18.9 2.3 90.4 89.2 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 14.5 15.4 15.3 1.9 90.7 89.1 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 17.0 19.4 21.8 3.6 99.0 98.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------