***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 15.5 16.1 19.3 1.5 79.3 70.4 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 15.2 15.9 19.1 1.4 77.6 67.4 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 17.5 18.0 18.9 1.2 74.7 66.6 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 13.1 13.5 17.0 1.2 74.9 68.1 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.4 16.5 1.1 74.2 67.8 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.9 13.1 14.6 1.0 73.4 68.3 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.5 16.3 19.3 1.6 80.4 69.8 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 28 72 100 8.9 9.4 14.7 1.3 78.9 72.2 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 15.5 16.0 16.8 1.3 77.5 70.2 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.5 15.2 1.3 78.2 71.1 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 14.6 14.9 16.0 1.2 75.3 69.2 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 13.0 13.4 15.7 1.3 78.0 71.9 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.8 14.2 14.9 1.1 74.5 69.2 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 15.6 15.9 16.6 1.0 73.8 65.8 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.3 16.8 17.9 1.5 80.5 72.7 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 15.5 15.8 15.7 1.0 71.8 66.8 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 15.7 16.0 18.2 1.1 73.2 63.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.7 14.5 1.1 76.5 69.5 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 15.3 15.9 19.0 1.3 76.9 67.0 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 9.5 9.5 12.5 0.8 70.0 65.3 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.3 18.1 1.2 76.0 68.9 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.8 18.1 1.0 72.1 63.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 14.6 15.1 18.6 1.3 77.7 67.9 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.7 16.5 1.1 75.3 67.7 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 15.2 15.9 17.8 1.5 81.3 72.5 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 14.1 14.3 15.1 1.0 72.9 68.1 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.8 18.5 1.6 82.7 73.2 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.8 14.2 17.3 1.2 74.4 68.1 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.3 13.8 1.1 76.1 69.7 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 15.7 16.4 19.4 1.4 78.1 68.3 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------