***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 15.3 16.4 19.8 2.2 95.5 90.4 14.1 14.6 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 15.3 16.3 19.6 2.0 94.1 88.7 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 17.5 18.3 19.4 1.8 92.2 86.3 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 13.2 14.0 17.2 1.7 90.5 85.6 11.7 12.3 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 13.8 14.5 16.8 1.6 90.0 84.8 12.5 13.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 12.8 13.2 14.8 1.4 87.7 82.2 11.8 12.2 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 15.5 16.7 20.0 2.4 96.5 91.8 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 7 93 100 8.5 9.3 15.0 1.7 92.9 87.3 7.3 7.8 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 15.0 15.9 17.5 1.9 94.4 89.6 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 8 92 100 14.8 15.6 15.7 1.8 93.8 88.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 14.4 15.0 16.3 1.5 89.5 83.9 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 12.6 13.2 15.9 1.6 90.6 85.2 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 13.7 14.1 14.9 1.1 83.8 78.1 12.7 13.1 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 15.4 16.0 17.1 1.5 90.5 84.3 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 16.1 17.0 18.3 1.8 92.6 88.4 14.8 15.3 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 15.3 15.7 15.8 1.2 84.7 79.1 14.2 14.7 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 15.6 16.3 18.8 1.8 92.1 86.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 13.3 14.1 14.9 1.5 91.7 85.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 15.2 15.9 19.5 2.0 93.8 88.4 14.1 14.5 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 21 79 100 9.1 9.6 12.8 1.2 86.7 80.4 8.2 8.6 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 6 94 100 14.7 15.4 18.8 1.9 93.3 88.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 14.5 15.1 18.8 1.7 91.0 85.7 13.5 13.9 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 14.6 15.3 19.3 2.0 94.5 89.4 13.6 13.9 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 15.1 15.7 17.0 1.6 91.3 85.1 14.0 14.4 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 5 95 100 15.0 15.9 18.2 2.0 94.7 90.0 13.8 14.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 13.9 14.2 15.0 1.1 83.4 77.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 15.5 16.7 19.0 2.2 96.2 91.7 14.1 14.6 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 13.7 14.3 17.6 1.6 89.2 84.3 12.6 13.0 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 12.6 13.4 14.2 1.5 91.2 85.1 11.5 11.9 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 15.6 16.5 20.0 2.2 94.8 89.6 14.3 14.8 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------