***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 31.9 33.9 32.6 3.5 89.8 82.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 31.2 32.9 33.0 3.5 88.9 81.9 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 31.2 32.7 32.3 3.0 85.9 79.4 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 24.8 26.1 30.3 2.7 84.1 78.4 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 32.3 33.4 30.2 2.6 82.8 77.3 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 30.4 31.4 27.7 2.3 81.1 76.6 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 14 86 100 31.0 33.0 33.0 3.7 90.9 83.5 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 19.9 20.9 28.4 2.6 82.9 76.9 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 31.4 32.7 30.7 2.9 85.2 79.2 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 31.2 32.4 29.3 2.8 84.8 78.6 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 31.7 32.8 29.6 2.6 82.6 77.3 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 31.0 31.8 29.4 2.5 81.3 75.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 32.0 32.7 28.7 2.2 79.0 74.4 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 30.9 32.0 30.0 2.7 83.4 76.6 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 13 87 100 32.1 33.7 31.1 3.1 88.7 82.8 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 21 79 100 32.7 33.4 29.2 2.3 79.4 74.8 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 30.5 31.9 32.3 3.2 87.1 80.0 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 30.1 31.1 28.3 2.6 82.5 76.1 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 30.9 32.6 32.8 3.3 87.9 81.1 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 26.2 26.6 25.7 2.0 76.4 71.1 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 31.5 32.9 31.6 2.9 85.5 79.4 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 31.1 32.2 32.0 2.9 84.7 78.2 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 30.7 32.2 32.3 3.2 87.3 80.5 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 30.7 31.9 30.1 2.7 83.8 77.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 31.7 33.6 30.9 3.3 89.1 82.5 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 31.4 31.7 28.5 1.8 74.3 70.3 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 31.2 33.4 31.8 3.6 91.1 84.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 17 83 100 32.2 33.3 30.6 2.7 83.9 78.5 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 25.7 26.6 27.1 2.4 81.0 74.6 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 31.2 33.0 33.0 3.5 89.2 82.2 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------