***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 28.9 29.4 30.4 2.0 74.8 67.9 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 28.6 28.8 30.3 1.7 71.1 64.8 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 28.7 28.7 30.0 1.5 68.7 63.1 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 22.2 22.5 28.5 1.6 71.3 65.5 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 28.6 29.7 28.4 1.5 69.5 64.0 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 28.4 28.7 26.3 1.5 71.2 66.2 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 28.3 28.7 30.4 2.0 74.1 67.1 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.0 26.8 1.5 70.8 65.0 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 28.8 29.1 28.7 1.6 70.7 64.7 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 28.8 29.1 27.4 1.6 70.9 64.8 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 29.3 29.6 28.0 1.5 70.6 64.8 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 28.6 28.9 27.9 1.5 70.2 64.8 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 28.8 29.8 27.3 1.3 68.2 64.0 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 27.6 28.2 27.7 1.1 64.2 59.2 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 29.8 30.4 29.3 2.0 77.0 70.3 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 29.3 30.4 27.7 1.3 68.2 63.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 27.8 27.8 29.6 1.5 68.6 63.0 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 26.9 27.7 26.3 1.3 66.5 61.6 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.4 30.3 1.6 69.5 63.5 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 23.1 23.7 24.1 0.9 62.8 59.6 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 28.9 29.1 29.5 1.5 70.1 64.2 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 28.4 28.1 29.4 1.3 66.4 61.3 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 28.5 28.4 29.8 1.5 68.3 62.3 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 28.0 27.9 1.2 65.9 60.8 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 29.1 29.7 28.7 1.9 74.9 68.0 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 28.4 29.1 27.2 1.1 65.2 61.9 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 28.6 29.3 29.6 2.1 77.0 69.6 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 29.8 30.2 28.9 1.7 72.1 66.4 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 22.6 23.3 25.2 1.1 65.0 60.6 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.7 30.5 1.8 72.0 65.6 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------