***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 26.4 26.1 27.9 1.3 64.8 59.9 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 26.2 27.9 1.0 62.3 58.2 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.6 26.0 27.7 1.0 61.6 57.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 16.4 18.6 26.0 0.9 60.9 56.5 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.4 25.9 0.9 60.9 56.9 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.3 23.9 0.9 61.8 56.5 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.3 26.0 27.8 1.2 63.9 59.3 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.4 14.8 24.5 1.1 63.4 58.5 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.7 26.1 26.4 1.1 63.0 58.6 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 23.3 25.9 25.1 1.1 63.4 58.6 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.2 25.6 1.0 62.2 57.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.6 25.5 1.0 62.5 57.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 24.2 26.4 24.9 0.8 59.9 55.9 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 23.2 25.8 25.7 0.9 60.2 57.0 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.8 26.7 1.2 65.6 59.8 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 24.6 27.0 25.4 0.8 59.8 55.9 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 25.0 25.1 27.2 0.8 59.2 56.1 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 22.4 24.8 24.2 1.0 61.2 57.1 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.8 27.9 1.0 61.9 58.1 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 18.6 20.7 21.9 0.7 58.5 54.8 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.1 27.2 1.0 62.1 58.0 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.6 27.1 0.8 58.9 56.2 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.8 27.6 1.0 62.1 58.3 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.6 25.8 0.9 61.0 57.3 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 25.8 26.3 26.2 1.2 64.0 58.9 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.9 25.0 0.6 57.9 54.6 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 26.6 26.3 27.0 1.3 65.9 60.4 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.5 26.3 0.9 61.5 56.9 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.8 20.2 23.1 0.9 60.2 56.2 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.4 26.0 28.1 1.1 63.3 58.9 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------