***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 29.2 30.7 31.3 3.1 92.8 87.8 27.0 27.9 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 11 89 100 28.9 30.2 31.6 3.0 92.1 86.8 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 28.9 29.9 31.1 2.7 89.4 83.9 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 22.3 23.2 28.9 2.4 86.7 81.8 20.1 20.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 29.8 30.8 29.1 2.4 87.1 82.1 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 20 80 100 28.4 29.1 26.5 2.0 83.7 78.4 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 28.6 30.1 31.6 3.3 94.0 89.2 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 15 85 100 17.8 18.8 27.3 2.4 88.1 82.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 29.0 30.2 29.8 2.7 89.9 84.7 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 29.0 30.2 28.2 2.7 90.2 84.6 26.8 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 29.5 30.4 28.6 2.4 86.8 81.4 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 28.8 29.7 28.3 2.3 86.2 80.4 26.5 27.4 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 29.8 30.5 27.8 2.0 83.5 78.2 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 28.8 29.9 29.0 2.5 89.1 83.1 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 29.9 31.1 30.1 2.8 90.7 86.3 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 30.5 31.2 28.3 2.1 83.6 78.4 28.2 29.1 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 12 88 100 28.1 29.2 30.9 2.8 90.5 85.4 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 27.9 28.9 27.2 2.5 88.6 82.6 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 11 89 100 28.7 30.0 31.5 3.0 91.4 86.0 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 24.0 24.7 24.7 1.8 82.2 76.1 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 14 86 100 29.2 30.3 30.6 2.7 89.4 84.4 27.0 27.8 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 28.6 29.6 30.7 2.6 88.9 83.9 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 28.6 29.8 31.1 2.9 91.4 85.8 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 28.5 29.5 29.0 2.5 88.9 83.0 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 29.4 30.8 29.7 2.9 91.9 86.9 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 29.2 29.8 27.5 1.7 79.1 73.9 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 29.0 30.5 30.5 3.2 93.8 88.9 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 29.9 30.7 29.4 2.4 86.2 81.4 27.7 28.5 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 17 83 100 23.5 24.6 26.1 2.3 87.3 81.1 21.2 22.2 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 28.8 30.2 31.7 3.1 92.2 87.0 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------