***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 1.1 1.2 1.1 11.2 20.0 15.6 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 1.0 1.0 1.1 10.5 20.0 15.0 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 1.4 1.0 0.9 10.1 18.0 14.2 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 86 14 0 100 1.3 1.5 1.6 14.9 24.5 21.9 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 1.0 0.9 1.1 10.4 19.2 15.4 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.5 2.5 2.0 18.7 25.6 19.3 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 1.1 0.9 1.0 9.3 18.0 13.2 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.8 4.7 3.3 30.9 34.9 27.5 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 1.3 1.3 1.3 12.8 21.4 18.7 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 80 20 0 100 2.4 2.5 2.5 20.0 26.3 21.7 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 1.8 2.0 1.5 14.6 25.5 19.9 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 1.7 2.1 2.2 25.3 32.0 24.9 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 1.4 1.6 1.9 19.7 26.3 21.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 3.2 4.6 3.3 27.2 32.0 24.4 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 0.9 0.8 1.0 10.3 17.9 15.6 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 83 17 0 100 1.1 1.0 1.4 14.5 24.4 19.0 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 1.3 1.3 1.2 11.8 21.2 14.9 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 2.7 3.1 3.0 23.3 27.6 22.3 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 89 11 0 100 1.6 1.5 1.1 11.1 20.7 15.4 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 4.9 5.2 41.5 39.6 32.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 91 9 0 100 1.7 1.4 1.0 10.6 18.3 15.6 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 1.3 1.7 1.7 17.0 25.0 16.2 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 1.5 1.4 1.2 12.7 21.5 15.2 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 2.6 2.9 2.2 18.5 24.3 19.7 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 1.5 1.5 1.3 11.8 18.2 16.2 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.8 3.0 3.2 30.1 33.2 27.6 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 1.3 1.1 1.2 11.4 18.8 15.5 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 89 11 0 100 1.3 1.1 1.1 11.6 20.1 16.6 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.8 4.6 3.7 30.1 32.2 25.8 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.0 9.6 17.6 13.6 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------