***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2015.-23.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 1.6 8.7 5.1 96.2 64.2 29.7 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.8 8.5 4.9 76.0 57.9 31.5 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 3.0 11.2 5.6 101.3 66.3 34.7 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.1 12.8 7.9 119.3 71.3 33.9 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 1.4 7.5 7.4 116.8 70.4 33.4 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 1.4 7.0 10.4 99.8 65.9 35.3 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 2.1 8.4 4.6 67.8 55.1 27.7 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.3 14.9 8.2 118.4 70.1 43.1 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.0 11.7 7.0 115.5 69.9 36.7 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.4 9.5 7.8 109.0 67.7 40.5 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 1.8 11.4 6.7 145.9 76.2 39.4 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 1.8 7.8 7.0 148.6 76.7 39.5 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.5 7.7 8.4 123.0 71.3 35.9 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 3.8 15.7 8.5 111.4 68.5 41.4 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.7 8.2 6.3 89.6 64.1 32.8 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 1.5 9.4 8.0 134.7 74.1 36.2 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 2.3 6.8 4.9 61.9 53.2 27.6 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.0 12.7 9.0 105.7 66.6 42.3 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 2.4 8.8 5.1 89.0 61.7 33.5 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.8 11.0 11.4 113.2 68.5 47.6 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 1.7 10.0 5.7 109.6 68.0 32.3 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.6 7.6 4.8 64.5 53.4 29.6 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.6 11.4 5.6 108.3 67.4 35.5 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 3.0 12.7 7.9 108.6 67.6 40.4 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 1.5 6.4 6.6 93.1 64.2 32.2 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 1.2 6.8 7.2 137.2 74.2 36.5 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 3.1 10.6 5.8 84.9 61.2 31.7 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.5 7.5 7.8 113.1 69.9 32.7 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 11.9 9.1 100.2 65.0 42.7 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.3 7.9 5.0 85.5 60.9 32.0 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------