***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.9 7.4 116.6 69.9 43.5 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 11.6 8.6 109.6 68.6 47.0 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 4.1 13.2 6.3 98.6 65.2 43.0 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.0 18.7 7.4 104.0 67.4 42.7 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.1 6.7 95.8 64.9 41.9 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.0 16.1 11.2 102.7 67.6 46.7 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.8 13.0 9.6 118.7 70.7 47.2 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.0 31.3 9.6 124.4 72.0 48.8 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.7 6.3 89.7 62.7 42.1 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.9 17.2 8.8 106.3 67.1 46.3 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.6 14.0 6.5 105.4 67.1 43.3 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.5 19.7 7.3 125.1 72.2 45.0 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 4.4 16.4 8.3 111.2 69.4 45.5 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.3 8.6 92.4 63.5 43.4 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.0 9.4 6.8 98.8 65.8 39.9 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 4.1 14.8 6.9 100.0 66.3 43.2 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.0 16.1 10.6 127.9 73.2 48.4 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.7 16.2 9.9 99.7 65.2 45.9 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.0 13.5 7.5 102.5 66.7 45.7 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.7 19.3 12.7 111.7 68.9 49.9 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.8 5.7 91.7 63.5 40.9 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.7 15.6 9.5 112.2 69.5 47.4 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.6 6.6 96.2 64.7 43.4 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 3.8 14.0 8.0 95.9 64.7 44.1 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.2 7.9 105.0 67.3 43.7 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 14.1 6.5 118.6 71.0 46.9 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.9 14.2 8.3 112.6 69.0 44.2 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.5 12.0 7.0 97.6 65.8 41.7 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 5.9 22.4 10.6 99.4 65.3 46.0 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.1 14.5 7.8 106.3 67.4 45.6 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------