***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 24.6 37.0 20.7 70.1 50.3 40.4 24.9 36.7 50.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 24.6 33.3 21.4 63.3 42.6 35.7 27.4 38.4 51.2 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 28.3 41.8 20.1 68.9 46.7 39.1 30.8 44.7 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 35.8 52.5 25.7 80.6 54.9 41.9 38.0 49.1 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 21.0 36.8 24.4 77.9 52.1 39.8 23.7 35.3 49.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 23.5 44.2 37.3 87.8 57.0 44.7 24.0 37.6 54.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.7 32.4 21.5 61.6 42.9 36.1 25.8 37.3 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 47.4 79.9 33.8 98.8 60.8 49.2 47.9 66.1 87.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 28.0 45.4 24.4 79.4 52.4 41.8 30.4 43.5 58.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 37.5 54.8 31.4 85.8 54.2 44.1 39.2 51.4 65.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 26.2 43.1 23.8 88.9 58.4 44.1 26.8 37.2 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 24.6 45.3 25.6 102.1 63.6 48.8 25.1 35.5 47.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 21.7 41.1 28.7 91.1 57.9 44.8 22.6 34.5 49.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 43.6 59.1 31.8 79.8 50.9 43.6 44.1 58.4 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 15.0 28.0 21.8 71.9 51.8 39.7 16.0 26.8 40.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 22.0 41.0 25.5 87.2 57.7 43.3 23.1 34.8 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 25.5 33.5 23.5 63.9 43.5 36.1 27.6 37.5 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 30.3 47.4 36.4 85.6 52.8 44.7 31.6 45.1 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 25.4 35.1 20.7 64.8 44.4 37.2 27.4 39.3 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 38.5 62.2 46.3 100.6 60.2 51.3 38.7 52.5 68.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 26.4 42.4 20.4 74.6 51.5 41.5 27.8 41.1 56.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 31.5 40.1 23.3 65.0 43.0 35.7 33.7 44.9 57.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 28.4 40.6 20.9 68.9 48.7 41.0 29.7 41.5 55.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 37.6 53.6 29.4 79.3 50.6 43.3 39.3 53.0 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 24.8 38.4 24.8 71.7 48.5 38.8 27.0 39.6 54.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 21.3 37.2 24.8 91.7 58.2 46.8 21.7 31.6 43.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 29.1 41.4 23.8 68.5 47.5 38.6 30.1 43.7 60.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 19.1 33.9 24.7 79.9 55.0 41.0 20.4 30.7 42.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 44.3 68.3 38.2 87.9 54.0 46.4 45.9 63.6 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 25.1 33.4 20.5 63.6 42.8 35.7 27.7 37.7 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------