***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 15.9 16.4 19.0 0.8 64.5 64.0 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 15.6 16.1 18.8 0.9 66.3 65.5 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 18.7 18.7 19.3 0.9 66.6 66.0 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 15.1 15.3 16.9 1.3 75.4 74.0 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 15.1 15.1 17.4 1.0 69.4 68.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 13.9 13.8 14.2 0.6 64.2 63.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 16.4 16.5 19.0 1.0 68.6 67.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 9.4 9.7 14.2 0.5 61.2 60.8 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 16.2 16.2 17.4 0.9 67.5 66.6 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 16.0 16.0 15.4 0.8 66.8 66.0 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 15.1 15.3 16.6 0.4 58.6 58.2 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 13.2 13.4 15.3 0.3 56.9 56.7 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.5 15.1 0.2 53.9 53.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 16.8 17.0 17.3 1.3 76.2 74.9 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 17.3 17.3 19.0 1.1 71.4 70.4 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 16.0 16.3 16.2 0.6 62.5 61.8 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.1 18.8 1.3 73.0 71.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 14.6 14.7 14.9 1.1 73.6 72.5 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 16.3 16.3 18.9 0.9 66.1 65.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 10.4 10.3 12.9 0.9 69.3 68.6 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.9 15.9 18.5 1.0 68.9 68.1 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 15.9 15.9 19.1 1.3 73.9 72.9 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 15.8 15.7 19.2 1.0 68.6 67.8 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 16.7 16.8 17.3 1.2 74.4 73.2 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 15.5 15.8 17.9 0.5 60.0 59.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.7 14.7 14.0 0.2 53.6 53.6 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 15.7 16.2 18.4 0.7 62.9 62.4 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 15.1 15.1 17.3 1.1 72.1 70.9 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 14.1 14.1 14.1 1.0 70.7 69.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 88 12 100 16.0 16.4 19.1 0.9 64.9 64.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------