***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.2 17.6 -0.5 41.8 43.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 15.7 14.6 17.2 -0.6 39.3 41.6 14.2 15.3 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 18.2 17.3 17.8 -0.5 41.0 43.0 16.8 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.5 15.5 0.0 49.4 49.6 12.4 13.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.0 15.6 -0.5 40.7 42.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.7 13.5 -0.1 47.9 47.9 12.0 12.8 13.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.9 15.2 17.5 -0.4 42.8 44.5 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.0 13.1 -0.6 38.2 40.3 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.4 15.7 -0.4 41.7 43.6 14.0 14.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.0 14.4 14.0 -0.4 42.4 44.1 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 13.3 13.6 15.1 -0.7 37.2 39.4 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 11.6 11.8 14.0 -0.7 35.6 38.0 11.7 12.4 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.0 13.8 -0.5 39.4 41.5 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.3 15.6 -0.2 46.5 47.9 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.9 17.5 0.0 50.7 50.6 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.6 14.8 14.6 -0.4 41.1 42.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.2 15.4 16.9 -0.5 40.0 42.3 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 12.8 13.4 -0.2 46.4 47.7 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 14.4 14.8 17.2 -0.7 38.1 40.6 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.8 11.4 -0.2 44.2 45.7 8.3 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 14.9 14.2 16.9 -0.4 41.4 43.3 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 15.0 14.1 17.1 -0.5 40.2 42.6 13.8 14.6 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 15.0 14.2 17.3 -0.6 38.6 41.1 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.7 15.5 -0.2 45.4 46.9 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.3 16.3 -0.7 38.4 40.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 14.3 13.7 13.2 -0.4 41.3 43.1 13.3 14.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.1 16.9 -0.5 41.1 42.8 14.6 15.7 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.6 16.1 0.1 51.5 51.3 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 12.7 12.7 -0.3 43.9 45.6 12.0 13.0 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.2 17.6 -0.5 40.8 42.8 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------