***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 13.5 13.8 16.7 -0.7 36.6 40.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 13.1 13.5 16.4 -0.7 37.0 40.2 13.2 14.2 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.3 15.7 17.0 -0.7 36.8 39.9 15.5 16.5 17.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.3 11.5 14.5 -0.4 41.9 43.8 10.9 11.9 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 11.9 12.2 14.2 -0.8 34.5 37.5 12.1 13.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.6 12.8 -0.4 40.5 42.8 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.4 14.0 16.7 -0.5 40.2 43.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.3 6.7 12.3 -0.8 33.3 36.6 6.6 7.6 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.5 14.3 -0.7 35.4 38.5 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.4 12.9 -0.6 36.5 39.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.7 13.8 -0.9 32.3 35.8 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 10.9 11.1 13.0 -0.9 30.8 34.6 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 12.2 12.4 12.2 -0.7 34.8 38.5 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.7 14.1 14.4 -0.6 38.5 41.2 13.8 14.7 15.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.0 16.1 -0.2 45.7 46.8 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 13.6 13.9 13.2 -0.6 36.5 39.6 13.7 14.6 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 13.8 14.2 16.2 -0.6 38.9 41.7 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.0 12.2 -0.4 40.4 42.7 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 13.4 13.7 16.4 -0.8 34.6 38.1 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 10.1 -0.5 38.9 41.5 7.9 8.6 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.7 -0.8 35.0 38.2 13.1 13.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 12.8 13.2 16.1 -0.7 37.3 40.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 12.9 13.1 16.4 -0.9 33.5 37.2 13.1 13.8 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 13.3 13.8 14.3 -0.5 39.5 42.2 13.5 14.4 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.4 15.1 -0.8 35.3 38.6 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 12.3 12.5 12.1 -0.8 32.4 36.2 12.5 13.2 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.1 13.6 15.8 -0.7 36.3 39.7 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.7 14.9 -0.2 45.6 46.6 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.5 11.1 11.6 -0.5 38.0 40.6 10.8 11.7 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 13.5 14.0 16.8 -0.7 38.0 41.1 13.7 14.7 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------