***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.9 16.8 0.5 58.7 57.3 11.6 12.5 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.7 12.9 16.6 0.6 59.9 58.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.0 17.0 0.4 56.6 56.2 13.7 14.6 15.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.3 14.2 0.5 59.0 57.3 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 10.2 11.3 13.9 0.0 49.3 50.5 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 12.4 0.2 53.9 53.4 9.8 10.6 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.4 16.9 0.8 63.9 60.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.7 5.6 11.9 -0.2 46.7 48.6 4.8 5.8 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 13.9 0.0 49.6 50.9 11.6 12.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.7 12.3 12.5 0.0 49.5 50.8 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 11.0 11.9 13.3 -0.3 44.8 47.0 11.3 12.1 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 9.5 10.1 12.5 -0.4 42.5 45.4 9.7 10.5 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 10.5 11.3 11.6 -0.3 43.8 46.1 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.4 13.2 14.2 0.2 53.8 54.4 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 14.0 15.7 0.5 59.5 57.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 11.9 12.8 12.7 -0.2 46.6 48.3 12.1 13.0 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 16.3 0.6 60.9 59.0 12.2 13.0 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.1 11.6 0.0 50.0 51.4 10.1 11.1 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.9 13.0 16.5 0.4 57.0 56.4 11.8 12.6 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.2 9.6 0.0 49.7 51.4 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.3 15.6 0.2 52.8 53.4 11.3 12.2 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.5 16.1 0.4 57.8 56.9 11.4 12.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.4 16.4 0.3 54.6 54.8 11.2 12.1 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.6 13.9 0.1 52.5 53.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.9 12.9 15.3 0.4 57.6 56.6 11.6 12.5 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 10.6 11.4 11.5 -0.3 43.8 46.2 10.9 11.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.1 13.3 16.0 0.5 59.4 57.8 11.5 12.6 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 14.5 0.4 58.4 56.6 10.6 11.4 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.7 11.1 -0.1 48.1 50.2 8.8 9.8 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 13.2 13.4 16.9 0.6 60.7 58.8 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------