***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 28.1 28.6 27.8 -1.1 35.8 39.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.3 -1.7 29.8 33.2 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 27.5 27.8 27.7 -1.6 31.7 35.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 20.6 21.6 25.6 -0.8 39.5 41.8 21.0 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 28.2 28.2 25.7 -1.9 28.2 32.4 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 26.6 27.0 23.7 -1.4 31.8 35.5 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 29.5 28.0 27.8 -1.0 36.9 39.7 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 15.7 15.5 23.4 -2.4 23.4 27.8 16.4 17.8 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.6 26.2 -1.8 29.1 33.0 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.4 24.4 -1.9 28.3 32.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 27.6 27.4 25.6 -2.4 24.1 28.7 28.2 29.7 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 26.7 26.3 24.7 -2.6 21.4 26.2 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 27.9 27.5 24.9 -2.5 21.9 26.8 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 27.4 27.5 25.7 -1.6 30.4 33.7 27.7 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.2 29.4 28.3 -0.6 43.0 44.6 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 28.6 28.6 25.4 -2.1 25.6 30.3 29.3 30.7 32.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.9 -1.5 31.3 34.6 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.3 26.5 23.6 -1.8 29.5 33.3 26.8 28.2 29.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.1 27.3 -1.9 28.2 31.7 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 22.2 22.1 21.4 -2.0 26.6 30.9 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 27.6 27.9 27.2 -1.6 31.5 35.3 28.0 29.4 30.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.5 26.8 -1.7 29.7 33.1 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 27.2 27.3 27.3 -1.9 28.5 31.9 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 26.9 27.0 25.7 -1.6 30.7 34.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.2 26.2 -1.4 33.0 36.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 27.4 27.0 24.4 -2.5 20.9 25.8 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 27.5 27.9 27.0 -1.1 35.4 38.7 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 28.2 29.3 26.7 -0.7 40.8 42.9 28.7 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 21.7 21.7 22.7 -1.9 28.0 32.1 22.2 23.7 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 27.4 27.7 27.6 -1.4 32.5 35.8 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------