***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 25.8 26.6 27.5 -0.9 39.1 41.4 26.1 27.4 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 25.3 26.0 27.2 -1.0 37.5 39.7 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 25.5 26.1 27.6 -1.1 36.1 39.1 25.8 27.2 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 21.4 20.4 25.8 -0.5 42.8 44.8 19.6 20.9 22.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 26.2 26.6 25.4 -1.5 31.7 35.3 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 25.6 26.0 23.3 -1.1 35.1 38.4 25.8 27.1 28.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.2 26.3 27.6 -0.5 43.5 44.5 25.4 26.7 28.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 14.6 14.6 23.4 -2.1 25.7 29.9 15.2 16.4 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.0 25.5 -1.5 32.0 35.5 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 25.5 25.9 24.2 -1.6 30.7 34.3 26.1 27.4 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 25.7 25.9 25.0 -1.9 27.1 31.2 26.4 27.8 29.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 25.1 25.0 24.7 -2.3 23.6 28.2 25.9 27.2 28.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 26.2 26.2 24.0 -2.0 25.7 30.0 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 25.1 25.6 25.1 -1.3 34.6 37.5 25.5 27.0 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.8 28.1 27.3 -0.2 47.6 49.2 27.0 28.2 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.2 24.9 -1.6 29.6 33.6 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 24.7 25.6 27.0 -0.8 40.5 42.1 25.0 26.3 27.6 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 24.6 25.0 23.5 -1.5 32.6 35.9 25.0 26.4 27.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 25.0 25.6 27.2 -1.3 34.5 37.4 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 20.7 20.9 21.0 -1.8 28.2 32.1 21.3 22.6 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 25.6 26.2 26.6 -1.3 34.5 37.8 26.0 27.4 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 25.0 25.8 26.7 -1.0 37.9 40.0 25.4 26.8 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 25.2 25.6 27.2 -1.4 33.4 36.6 25.6 26.9 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 25.1 25.5 25.3 -1.3 34.4 37.6 25.4 26.8 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 28.1 26.6 25.7 -0.9 38.5 41.1 26.1 27.5 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 26.0 25.9 24.6 -2.0 24.7 29.2 26.6 27.9 29.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 25.5 26.3 26.6 -0.7 40.3 42.3 25.7 27.0 28.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 28.9 27.9 26.3 -0.4 44.3 46.3 27.0 28.4 29.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 20.2 20.5 22.5 -1.6 30.8 34.2 20.7 22.1 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.3 26.1 27.4 -0.9 38.9 41.0 25.6 27.0 28.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------