***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.8 28.0 0.9 61.7 59.0 23.3 24.8 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 25.7 26.1 28.0 1.0 62.2 59.1 23.5 25.0 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.8 28.2 0.8 59.8 57.7 23.6 25.0 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 18.4 18.8 26.1 1.0 63.2 60.2 16.5 17.8 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.8 25.9 0.3 53.5 53.8 24.2 25.6 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.7 23.4 0.2 53.0 53.0 23.2 24.5 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 26.5 26.3 28.3 1.4 68.0 62.9 23.2 24.7 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.4 13.5 23.9 -0.3 45.8 47.8 12.6 13.8 15.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.5 26.1 0.4 54.6 54.6 23.7 25.1 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.0 24.8 0.2 52.8 53.1 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.9 25.1 25.5 -0.2 48.0 49.8 23.9 25.3 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.1 25.1 -0.6 43.1 45.9 23.3 24.6 25.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.3 24.3 -0.4 44.6 47.2 24.4 25.7 26.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.7 25.9 0.7 58.8 57.5 23.4 24.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 27.1 26.7 27.3 1.1 65.1 61.2 24.4 25.7 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 24.7 26.2 25.2 0.0 49.6 51.0 24.9 26.2 27.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 26.1 25.7 27.8 1.2 65.2 61.3 22.9 24.4 25.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.3 24.2 0.4 55.0 54.7 22.6 23.9 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.6 28.0 0.7 59.1 57.1 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.0 21.5 -0.1 48.3 49.5 18.8 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 25.8 25.8 27.1 0.6 57.5 56.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.9 27.6 1.0 62.3 59.4 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.5 28.0 0.6 57.9 56.5 23.3 24.8 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.2 25.3 26.0 0.6 57.9 56.8 23.2 24.6 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 25.8 26.0 26.2 0.8 60.6 58.4 23.8 25.2 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 23.9 24.9 24.8 -0.6 43.2 46.1 24.1 25.3 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.6 26.1 27.1 1.0 62.7 59.6 23.5 25.0 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 27.0 26.6 26.4 1.0 62.9 59.9 24.5 25.7 26.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.9 19.6 23.1 0.2 52.6 53.0 18.0 19.4 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.5 26.0 28.2 1.0 63.0 59.7 23.3 24.8 26.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------