***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 28.1 27.8 28.3 0.0 49.7 50.4 27.0 27.9 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 28.0 27.4 28.0 -0.4 43.5 44.8 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 28.0 27.4 28.3 -0.4 43.3 45.1 26.9 27.7 28.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 21.2 21.1 26.0 0.1 52.5 52.9 20.1 20.9 21.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 27.4 27.7 26.0 -0.8 35.1 38.1 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.5 23.8 -0.7 36.7 39.5 26.3 27.2 28.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 27.6 27.6 28.4 0.3 55.4 54.7 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.0 23.8 -1.5 23.8 27.4 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 28.2 27.1 26.5 -0.8 36.4 39.2 27.0 27.8 28.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 26.6 26.8 24.7 -1.0 33.0 36.0 26.8 27.6 28.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 26.8 26.8 25.8 -1.4 26.8 30.4 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 26.0 25.7 25.0 -1.7 21.1 25.0 26.5 27.4 28.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 27.1 26.9 24.9 -1.6 22.5 26.4 27.6 28.5 29.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.1 26.2 -0.5 41.4 43.4 26.6 27.5 28.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 28.8 28.8 28.3 0.3 56.0 55.9 27.6 28.5 29.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 27.9 27.9 25.6 -1.2 29.2 32.8 28.2 29.1 30.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 27.2 26.9 27.7 -0.1 47.9 48.6 26.2 26.9 27.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 27.0 25.9 24.0 -0.8 34.8 37.6 25.8 26.7 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 27.7 26.8 27.9 -0.6 39.7 41.7 26.5 27.4 28.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.6 21.5 21.6 -1.2 27.5 30.8 21.9 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 28.2 27.4 27.5 -0.5 41.6 43.8 27.0 27.8 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.3 27.5 -0.3 45.3 46.5 26.7 27.5 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.7 26.9 28.0 -0.6 39.1 41.4 26.6 27.4 28.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.7 26.2 -0.6 39.8 42.1 26.4 27.2 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 28.3 27.7 26.6 -0.2 45.5 47.0 27.1 28.0 28.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 26.8 26.4 24.7 -1.7 20.2 24.1 27.2 28.1 29.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 27.9 27.6 27.5 0.0 49.9 50.5 26.8 27.6 28.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 28.8 28.7 26.9 0.2 52.8 53.2 27.7 28.5 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.2 23.1 -1.0 31.9 35.0 21.2 22.2 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 27.8 27.4 28.2 -0.2 46.7 47.6 26.7 27.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------