***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.08.2020.-23.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 14.3 14.4 147.8 77.0 58.4 2.1 5.0 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.7 11.6 10.5 105.7 67.4 54.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 12.5 15.8 15.4 149.7 77.2 64.2 3.6 6.7 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 7.5 19.1 15.2 170.1 80.9 63.1 2.1 5.1 10.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 7.4 11.1 15.6 171.9 80.9 65.2 1.5 3.4 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 8.0 10.8 15.6 147.7 77.0 64.2 1.5 3.6 7.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.3 14.2 10.3 109.2 68.1 53.9 2.8 6.8 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 15.4 19.9 16.0 151.9 77.5 65.7 3.0 6.7 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 13.1 20.5 17.9 183.6 82.9 69.1 1.9 5.0 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 10.8 15.2 17.9 167.2 80.4 66.6 2.2 4.9 8.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.9 10.7 12.9 138.9 74.7 58.0 1.6 3.8 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 6.4 7.9 12.9 155.0 77.4 65.4 1.9 3.5 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 7.0 10.3 13.4 158.0 78.8 64.6 1.5 3.4 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 17.7 21.2 19.1 150.7 77.6 67.6 4.4 8.6 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 15.2 12.7 157.4 78.7 55.9 1.7 4.4 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.2 10.7 13.6 151.8 77.6 61.3 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.9 10.3 104.5 67.2 55.5 3.0 6.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 16.4 22.8 21.4 170.9 81.1 70.2 2.7 6.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.0 12.0 11.8 117.5 70.1 57.5 2.4 5.6 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 12.4 14.9 19.4 150.2 75.9 66.7 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 11.3 16.8 16.2 169.0 80.7 65.7 1.9 4.6 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.3 14.2 12.1 113.8 69.6 58.8 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 13.0 15.3 14.6 142.4 76.0 64.2 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 14.9 19.9 19.9 166.8 80.4 69.3 3.5 6.9 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 5.2 11.4 17.7 165.7 80.2 62.3 1.8 3.9 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 3.9 6.0 10.4 119.6 70.2 59.2 1.5 3.0 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.9 17.8 16.1 146.7 76.7 59.4 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.0 11.2 14.2 169.0 80.6 59.8 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 16.2 21.9 23.6 173.8 81.6 72.2 3.1 6.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.4 10.5 11.3 115.7 69.9 55.5 2.8 5.5 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------