***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2020.-30.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 3.3 19.0 10.8 139.6 75.4 42.4 4.2 8.2 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.3 15.0 8.3 106.0 67.2 42.4 3.7 7.9 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.7 25.2 11.3 140.7 75.7 47.2 3.6 8.8 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 4.2 22.9 11.5 142.1 76.0 48.4 4.1 8.7 15.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 4.0 28.4 13.3 172.5 81.2 50.0 4.1 9.0 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.6 18.3 13.2 145.1 76.6 54.2 3.3 6.9 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.0 10.3 7.5 92.7 63.3 39.2 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 7.8 42.2 15.1 165.1 80.0 54.4 7.6 15.2 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 6.2 31.3 13.9 169.3 80.7 50.3 6.3 11.9 19.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 6.1 32.1 15.6 161.6 79.4 52.2 6.2 12.0 20.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.9 23.8 12.5 173.0 81.3 48.8 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.3 21.4 12.3 168.5 80.6 52.8 3.1 6.8 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.8 23.6 12.8 159.6 79.2 55.8 3.4 7.7 14.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 7.3 31.1 15.3 128.7 73.1 51.0 7.1 14.0 24.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.6 10.7 8.4 138.6 75.4 46.2 1.5 3.6 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.4 24.9 12.5 166.9 80.3 53.1 3.3 7.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.3 7.6 84.4 61.0 38.6 4.7 8.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 22.0 17.1 148.6 77.2 54.3 4.7 9.1 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 4.0 16.3 9.3 119.4 70.8 44.3 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 24.5 30.4 18.4 158.4 79.1 57.1 8.9 14.5 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 4.5 26.9 12.5 158.2 78.9 47.8 4.4 9.4 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 5.1 16.7 9.1 103.1 66.5 41.6 5.8 10.3 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 4.6 22.0 10.5 128.4 72.9 46.5 4.6 9.6 17.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 6.4 29.5 14.3 137.5 75.0 50.8 6.6 12.8 22.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 4.1 25.3 11.7 140.3 75.6 46.4 4.7 9.9 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.3 19.8 10.4 168.4 80.5 54.1 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 3.7 21.4 10.9 130.3 73.4 43.6 4.3 9.0 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 2.8 16.1 10.8 147.9 77.1 50.0 2.6 5.8 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 8.0 36.2 18.0 148.6 77.2 55.7 7.6 14.8 25.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 2.6 12.2 9.2 120.3 71.0 44.2 2.9 5.9 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------