***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.3 7.0 92.1 63.8 40.3 3.6 7.1 12.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 2.7 9.8 6.6 93.1 63.7 40.1 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 3.9 12.9 7.6 95.9 64.3 40.3 4.1 8.1 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 5.2 15.5 6.8 86.4 61.5 38.9 5.3 10.5 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.5 12.5 7.0 92.3 63.4 40.1 3.7 7.7 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.2 15.0 9.2 98.7 65.8 38.7 3.5 8.0 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.5 9.6 6.0 82.5 60.6 38.7 3.7 6.9 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 7.4 22.2 7.9 86.7 61.3 42.2 8.1 15.4 25.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.9 12.4 7.9 96.3 64.5 40.6 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 4.6 14.6 8.8 89.7 62.3 41.0 4.7 9.6 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.3 11.6 6.1 87.0 61.7 37.8 3.7 7.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.3 13.8 6.4 91.4 63.1 40.4 3.4 8.0 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 4.3 16.1 8.2 108.0 68.7 41.9 4.5 8.7 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.0 12.3 10.7 94.5 63.6 43.1 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.8 8.4 5.6 90.1 62.7 35.7 2.1 4.9 9.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 4.0 15.0 7.2 102.3 66.8 40.9 4.2 8.5 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.7 10.8 6.4 82.8 61.0 39.3 3.8 7.4 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 14.7 10.7 92.3 62.5 43.8 4.4 9.3 16.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 3.5 13.2 7.3 100.2 65.8 41.3 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.9 17.0 11.8 101.7 65.3 48.4 4.3 9.5 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.9 12.5 7.7 100.6 65.8 40.7 4.1 7.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 14.6 8.5 104.7 67.5 44.1 4.6 8.5 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.8 7.6 97.3 64.9 41.5 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.8 13.1 9.4 92.8 62.8 42.0 3.5 7.9 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.8 13.1 7.8 96.1 64.8 41.8 3.9 7.8 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 12.6 7.0 106.6 67.9 39.2 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 3.5 12.0 7.4 92.1 63.8 40.7 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.4 11.0 6.6 91.8 63.2 37.9 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.4 20.3 11.3 94.0 62.9 45.4 5.5 12.3 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 3.6 12.6 6.7 91.0 63.2 40.1 4.1 8.2 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------