***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.08.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-06.09.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 43.1 54.1 42.5 119.7 68.9 58.6 24.9 36.7 50.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 26.5 43.2 32.5 92.5 56.4 49.8 27.4 38.4 51.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 52.2 64.7 42.9 119.2 68.7 59.0 30.8 44.7 61.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 63.5 68.3 44.1 132.6 73.4 64.6 38.0 49.1 61.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 39.9 58.8 44.0 134.4 73.9 63.0 23.7 35.3 49.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 43.2 60.9 46.8 123.9 70.6 60.2 24.0 37.6 54.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 43.7 40.0 31.5 89.1 53.9 48.1 25.8 37.3 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 91.7 102.4 53.5 136.9 75.0 67.4 47.9 66.1 87.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 47.9 73.1 51.1 145.0 77.1 66.8 30.4 43.5 58.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 66.3 74.5 56.1 136.3 74.7 65.8 39.2 51.4 65.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 41.8 54.9 40.5 128.6 72.1 61.3 26.8 37.2 49.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 49.9 55.9 41.7 137.7 74.9 66.4 25.1 35.5 47.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 39.6 56.0 40.2 128.1 72.0 62.4 22.6 34.5 49.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 64.2 77.1 57.6 117.9 68.3 60.7 44.1 58.4 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 32.8 43.4 31.4 117.9 68.7 57.6 16.0 26.8 40.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 39.8 57.1 40.4 130.8 72.8 62.9 23.1 34.8 49.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 42.9 38.4 30.6 82.6 51.2 45.8 27.6 37.5 48.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 63.9 71.1 64.7 133.3 74.3 66.3 31.6 45.1 60.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 27.7 49.0 36.4 103.3 61.7 53.9 27.4 39.3 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 72.3 76.7 62.6 128.5 72.7 65.3 38.7 52.5 68.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 46.3 68.2 46.9 136.7 74.7 64.5 27.8 41.1 56.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 50.0 51.8 36.8 97.1 59.0 51.6 33.7 44.9 57.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 47.7 56.8 42.1 115.7 67.3 58.8 29.7 41.5 55.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 58.6 75.4 55.9 127.2 71.9 63.3 39.3 53.0 68.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 45.1 59.0 45.7 122.5 70.1 60.2 27.0 39.6 54.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 35.8 46.8 33.3 120.6 69.6 59.3 21.7 31.6 43.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 50.0 61.4 44.1 115.5 67.3 57.8 30.1 43.7 60.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 45.1 50.0 40.3 132.3 73.3 62.7 20.4 30.7 42.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 89.8 97.0 66.8 132.0 74.1 66.5 45.9 63.6 83.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 43.1 44.4 34.9 99.4 59.9 52.5 27.7 37.7 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------