***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.4 17.8 -0.2 44.4 45.4 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 15.6 14.9 17.4 -0.4 40.3 42.2 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.7 17.6 -0.3 43.2 44.3 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 14.1 14.2 16.1 0.3 55.8 55.0 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.1 16.0 -0.1 48.6 49.0 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 46 54 100 13.8 13.8 15.0 0.8 67.2 65.2 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.2 17.5 -0.5 37.7 39.9 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 9.3 9.4 14.4 0.3 57.7 56.2 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.2 16.4 -0.2 46.2 46.8 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 15.5 15.4 14.8 0.2 53.8 53.0 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 15.5 -0.1 46.6 47.2 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.1 15.0 0.1 53.0 52.2 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 14.3 14.2 14.8 0.0 50.7 50.8 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.9 16.2 0.1 52.7 52.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.4 17.3 0.0 50.8 50.9 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.9 15.5 0.1 52.6 52.4 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 16.4 15.9 17.0 -0.3 42.7 43.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.7 13.9 13.9 0.4 60.1 58.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 17.4 -0.4 40.5 42.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.0 12.3 0.6 64.4 61.5 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 14.8 17.4 -0.3 43.6 44.5 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.2 14.4 16.9 -0.6 35.2 37.6 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.2 14.7 17.3 -0.3 42.5 43.7 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.8 15.7 16.0 0.1 53.4 52.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 15.6 15.1 16.7 -0.2 45.9 46.5 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 86 14 100 14.6 14.8 14.7 0.4 58.6 57.6 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.5 17.2 -0.1 47.0 47.6 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 14.2 14.2 16.7 0.2 54.4 53.9 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.6 13.4 0.3 59.2 57.3 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.3 17.6 -0.5 38.4 40.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------