***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 80 20 0 100 14.0 13.5 15.8 -1.8 14.6 19.2 14.6 15.5 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 88 12 0 100 13.0 12.6 15.8 -1.8 15.2 19.0 14.1 15.1 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 88 12 0 100 15.7 15.2 15.6 -1.8 13.6 18.1 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 11.3 10.5 13.8 -1.7 13.5 19.1 12.3 13.5 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 11.9 11.4 13.7 -1.6 15.4 21.1 12.5 13.4 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 11.7 11.6 12.9 -1.0 26.4 30.3 11.9 12.7 13.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 13.5 13.1 15.8 -1.8 15.3 19.2 14.4 15.4 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 7.1 6.9 12.4 -1.3 21.4 25.6 7.7 8.6 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 75 25 0 100 13.3 12.8 13.9 -1.6 15.1 21.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 76 24 0 100 13.4 13.1 12.6 -1.5 17.6 22.8 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.7 13.6 -1.3 19.8 24.6 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 11.2 11.0 13.2 -1.3 20.0 24.2 11.6 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 12.2 12.0 12.9 -1.2 21.7 26.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 13.9 13.5 14.0 -1.6 15.7 20.9 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 14.1 13.6 14.4 -1.8 13.3 18.6 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 13.8 13.5 13.5 -1.3 21.3 25.8 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 14.3 14.1 15.6 -1.5 19.6 23.5 14.9 15.7 16.6 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 11.6 11.2 11.9 -1.4 16.7 22.4 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.7 -1.8 15.0 18.8 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 8.1 8.0 10.9 -1.1 24.8 28.9 8.4 9.0 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 13.0 12.4 14.9 -1.8 13.3 18.7 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.5 -1.5 18.3 22.3 13.7 14.5 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 13.1 12.8 15.4 -1.8 14.1 18.2 13.9 14.6 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 82 18 0 100 13.5 13.1 13.8 -1.6 15.0 20.5 14.2 14.9 15.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 13.3 12.5 14.2 -1.7 13.3 18.6 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 12.9 12.9 13.2 -1.1 25.6 30.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 13.5 12.7 15.0 -1.6 14.9 19.8 14.3 15.5 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 12.1 11.7 14.3 -1.6 15.5 20.7 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 11.2 10.7 11.4 -1.4 17.0 22.6 11.9 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 13.6 13.2 15.9 -1.9 14.2 18.0 14.6 15.6 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------