***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.08.2014.-31.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 13.0 13.2 15.5 -1.2 29.0 32.7 13.4 14.2 15.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 12.5 12.8 15.6 -1.1 30.5 33.6 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 14.7 14.9 15.4 -1.2 28.6 32.3 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 10.1 10.0 13.4 -1.3 25.2 29.4 10.5 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 11.6 11.7 13.3 -1.1 28.5 32.2 11.9 12.8 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 11.0 11.2 12.3 -0.7 35.0 37.7 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.7 -1.1 30.8 34.0 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 6.0 6.3 11.8 -1.0 31.0 34.4 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 12.8 13.0 13.5 -1.1 29.2 33.0 13.2 14.1 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 12.7 13.0 12.2 -0.9 30.8 34.2 13.1 13.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 12.4 12.6 13.1 -0.9 31.4 34.5 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.0 12.7 -1.0 29.3 32.9 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 12.1 12.1 12.3 -0.9 30.8 33.9 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 13.2 13.6 13.7 -0.9 31.7 34.9 13.6 14.5 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 14.0 13.8 14.0 -1.4 23.0 27.2 14.4 15.2 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 13.4 13.5 12.9 -1.0 30.3 33.4 13.6 14.4 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 13.4 13.9 15.5 -0.7 36.7 38.5 13.7 14.5 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 11.2 11.5 11.5 -0.9 31.8 34.8 11.6 12.3 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 12.9 13.2 15.5 -1.1 30.6 33.7 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 7.5 7.8 10.4 -0.8 33.8 36.5 7.8 8.5 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 12.5 12.6 14.6 -1.2 27.6 31.8 12.9 13.7 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.5 12.8 15.3 -0.8 34.8 37.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 12.4 12.7 15.2 -1.0 30.3 33.6 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 12.9 13.2 13.5 -0.9 31.0 34.2 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.0 -1.1 28.9 32.7 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 12.1 12.2 12.4 -1.1 28.5 32.6 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.8 14.8 -1.0 30.7 34.2 13.0 14.1 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 11.5 11.4 13.7 -1.4 24.1 28.2 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 10.0 10.5 11.2 -0.8 32.8 35.5 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.7 -1.2 28.9 32.4 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------