***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.09.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 10.7 10.6 14.5 -1.6 22.7 28.5 11.3 12.2 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 10.6 10.5 14.5 -1.5 23.2 28.4 11.1 12.1 13.1 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 12.9 12.7 14.3 -1.5 23.1 28.8 13.4 14.4 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 7.6 7.2 12.3 -1.8 18.0 24.7 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 9.6 9.3 12.2 -1.6 20.7 27.4 10.1 11.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 9.3 9.2 11.1 -1.2 25.3 32.0 9.5 10.2 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 11.2 11.0 14.5 -1.5 23.2 28.5 11.6 12.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 4.2 4.0 10.7 -1.3 23.6 31.0 4.6 5.6 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 10.9 10.8 12.4 -1.5 22.3 28.8 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 10.8 10.7 11.0 -1.4 23.4 30.5 11.2 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 10.7 10.3 12.0 -1.4 22.3 29.3 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 9.1 8.8 11.6 -1.5 21.2 28.7 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 10.0 9.7 11.2 -1.4 20.9 28.4 10.4 11.2 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 11.5 11.5 12.6 -1.3 25.5 31.5 11.9 12.7 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 12.0 11.7 12.9 -1.9 16.7 23.4 12.5 13.2 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 11.3 11.0 11.8 -1.5 20.9 28.2 11.7 12.6 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 11.6 11.6 14.3 -1.2 27.8 32.3 11.9 12.8 13.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 9.5 9.3 10.4 -1.3 24.4 31.6 9.8 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 11.0 10.9 14.4 -1.5 23.8 29.0 11.5 12.4 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 5.7 5.7 9.3 -1.2 25.9 33.0 6.1 6.9 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.3 13.5 -1.6 22.0 27.9 11.0 11.9 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.9 10.8 14.2 -1.2 26.6 31.5 11.1 11.9 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.3 14.1 -1.4 24.3 29.6 10.9 11.8 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 11.1 11.0 12.4 -1.3 24.9 31.3 11.4 12.2 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 10.6 10.5 12.9 -1.6 21.5 27.6 11.3 12.2 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 10.1 9.9 11.4 -1.6 19.8 27.2 10.6 11.3 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 10.4 10.3 13.7 -1.5 23.0 29.0 11.2 12.5 13.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 9.7 9.4 12.7 -1.8 17.2 23.9 10.2 11.0 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 8.2 8.0 10.0 -1.3 24.3 31.6 8.5 9.5 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 11.0 10.8 14.6 -1.6 22.2 27.7 11.6 12.6 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------