***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-07.09.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 13.5 13.4 15.9 -1.2 17.1 22.1 13.9 14.4 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 13.1 12.9 15.8 -1.2 16.1 21.1 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 15.6 15.5 15.7 -1.2 16.3 21.1 16.1 16.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 11.1 10.8 13.9 -1.1 16.1 22.0 11.5 12.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 11.9 11.7 13.8 -1.1 16.6 22.3 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.9 -0.5 32.3 36.0 11.6 12.0 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 13.6 13.3 15.9 -1.2 16.2 21.2 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 7.0 6.9 12.3 -0.8 24.1 29.2 7.2 7.6 8.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 13.2 13.1 14.1 -1.1 16.9 22.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 13.3 13.1 12.7 -0.9 20.5 26.1 13.5 13.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 75 25 0 100 12.7 12.6 13.5 -1.0 19.2 24.9 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.2 11.1 13.1 -0.9 21.0 26.1 11.4 11.9 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 12.2 12.1 12.8 -0.9 20.2 25.7 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 13.9 13.7 14.1 -0.9 19.2 25.2 14.2 14.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 14.2 13.9 14.7 -1.3 14.5 19.9 14.6 15.1 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 13.7 13.6 13.4 -0.9 20.5 25.9 14.0 14.5 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 14.1 14.0 15.6 -0.9 21.4 26.3 14.4 14.8 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 11.6 11.5 11.9 -0.8 22.1 28.0 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 13.6 13.5 15.7 -1.2 16.2 21.2 14.0 14.4 14.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.9 7.9 10.7 -0.6 28.2 33.4 8.0 8.5 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 84 16 0 100 13.0 12.8 15.1 -1.2 15.4 20.6 13.4 13.8 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.5 -1.0 18.2 23.4 13.3 13.7 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 13.0 12.9 15.5 -1.1 16.3 21.5 13.4 13.8 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 13.4 13.3 13.9 -0.9 19.6 25.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 13.3 13.1 14.4 -1.1 16.6 22.0 13.6 14.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 12.6 12.5 12.9 -0.8 22.5 27.6 12.8 13.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 13.6 13.4 15.2 -1.1 18.4 23.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 76 24 0 100 12.0 11.8 14.4 -1.2 16.2 21.7 12.4 12.8 13.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 11.1 11.0 11.5 -0.8 22.5 28.5 11.3 11.8 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 13.7 13.5 15.9 -1.3 15.1 19.9 14.1 14.6 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------