***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 27.8 27.9 27.2 -1.5 27.9 29.8 28.3 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 27.3 27.1 26.6 -2.1 20.7 23.3 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 27.5 27.5 27.1 -1.8 24.5 26.8 28.2 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 21.0 21.2 25.7 -1.2 31.9 33.7 21.3 22.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 28.5 28.6 26.2 -1.3 30.1 32.1 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 29.0 29.0 25.4 0.3 54.6 54.0 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 27.1 27.0 26.7 -1.9 22.9 25.3 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.0 24.8 -0.8 38.4 39.8 16.6 17.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 27.6 27.7 26.7 -1.5 27.5 29.8 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 27.7 27.8 25.2 -1.2 31.9 33.9 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 28.1 28.3 26.0 -1.2 32.2 34.3 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 29.5 28.0 25.8 -0.9 36.5 38.1 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 30.6 29.3 26.0 -0.6 40.4 41.4 28.7 30.1 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.2 25.7 -1.5 26.2 28.9 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 28.9 29.1 27.4 -1.1 32.0 33.6 29.1 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 31.3 29.8 26.3 -0.8 38.1 39.5 29.4 30.7 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 26.4 26.3 26.2 -2.0 20.9 23.7 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 26.7 27.0 24.3 -1.0 34.3 36.2 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 26.9 26.7 26.7 -2.1 20.9 23.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 24.7 24.3 23.5 0.1 51.4 51.0 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.3 -1.6 27.2 29.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 76 24 0 100 26.9 26.6 26.1 -2.2 19.3 22.2 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 77 23 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.7 -1.9 22.6 25.3 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 27.0 27.1 25.7 -1.4 28.3 30.7 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 28.2 28.4 26.3 -1.3 31.4 33.1 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 30.2 29.2 25.8 -0.5 42.1 42.8 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.9 28.0 26.8 -1.3 31.5 33.2 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 28.8 29.0 26.6 -1.1 33.0 34.6 29.0 30.2 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 22.1 22.8 23.9 -0.6 40.3 41.5 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 27.1 27.1 26.9 -2.0 21.9 24.3 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------