***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.08.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.08.2014.-24.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 27.2 26.9 26.0 -2.2 18.9 23.5 28.3 29.7 31.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 26.8 26.4 25.7 -2.5 18.2 22.0 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 26.9 26.6 26.1 -2.1 20.8 25.2 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 20.0 19.7 24.8 -2.2 19.8 24.5 21.1 22.6 24.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 27.8 27.7 25.0 -1.8 24.7 29.2 28.6 30.0 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 29.2 27.5 23.9 -0.8 37.8 40.6 27.1 28.6 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 79 21 0 100 26.4 26.0 25.7 -2.4 18.4 22.3 27.4 28.8 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 16.1 16.5 23.9 -1.2 33.6 37.2 16.4 17.8 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 27.3 27.2 25.2 -1.8 25.8 30.3 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 27.4 27.5 24.2 -1.4 30.5 34.5 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 27.8 27.8 24.8 -1.5 29.4 33.5 28.2 29.6 31.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 27.0 27.3 24.8 -1.3 31.6 35.4 27.4 28.9 30.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 28.3 28.4 24.4 -1.3 31.3 35.1 28.5 30.0 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.3 24.8 -1.5 29.2 33.0 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 27.2 26.7 25.1 -2.4 16.4 20.8 28.4 29.9 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 28.8 28.8 24.7 -1.5 29.4 33.4 29.2 30.6 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 26.2 25.9 25.5 -2.3 20.2 24.0 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.7 26.7 23.6 -1.1 33.7 37.4 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 26.3 26.0 25.9 -2.4 19.6 23.4 27.4 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 24.8 23.2 22.1 -0.8 38.7 41.4 22.7 24.2 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.1 26.8 25.7 -2.0 22.0 26.8 27.9 29.3 30.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 26.7 26.5 25.5 -2.2 21.4 25.1 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 26.7 26.6 25.8 -2.1 22.8 26.6 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 26.8 26.9 24.8 -1.5 29.2 33.2 27.2 28.6 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 76 24 0 100 26.9 26.6 24.8 -2.1 19.7 24.6 28.0 29.5 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 27.9 27.9 24.6 -1.4 30.2 34.2 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 26.5 26.3 25.3 -2.1 19.8 24.4 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 27.6 27.3 25.1 -2.1 20.5 24.9 28.6 30.1 31.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.2 22.5 22.8 -0.9 36.9 40.1 22.2 23.6 25.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 26.4 26.1 25.9 -2.5 18.0 21.9 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------